Vikings defense targets Miami's stalled passing game

The central matchup

Minnesota’s defense has carried its 3-0 start, and it now gets a Miami passing game that has struggled to create efficient offense. The Dolphins visit the Vikings on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 4:05 PM ET.

Miami averages 12 points per game, 31st in the league, and its offense ranks 29th in efficiency. EPA per play measures expected points added on each snap; Miami is at -0.146, while its 37.7% success rate measures the share of plays producing positive EPA. Minnesota allows 13.7 points per game, second in the league, and its defense permits -0.149 EPA per play, also second.

Pressure against protection

The Vikings’ best edge is through the air. Their pass defense ranks first, while Miami’s pass offense ranks 28th; Malik Willis has thrown for 627 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions across three games. Minnesota leads the league with six sacks, and Dallas Turner has four of them, a major concern for a Miami offense that has allowed three sacks per game.

Miami’s ground defense presents a real counterweight to Minnesota’s preferred path. The Dolphins allow 104.3 rushing yards per game, 12th, but they rank first in rush-defense efficiency; Minnesota averages 101.3 rushing yards, 17th. Aaron Jones Sr. has 203 rushing yards and one touchdown on 52 carries in three games, though he is questionable with a knee injury.

Offenses reshaped by absences

Miami will be without De'Von Achane, who is on IR after leading the club with 127 rushing yards on 34 carries in three games. Malik Washington, with 152 receiving yards on 12 catches, becomes an important outlet against the NFL’s top pass defense. Center Aaron Brewer is questionable, as is linebacker Chop Robinson; Miami has six more questionable players.

Minnesota will be without Justin Jefferson, its receiving leader with 179 yards, 13 catches and two touchdowns in three games, because of an ankle injury. Carson Wentz has 276 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in two games, but Minnesota ranks 32nd in passing yards per game at 154. Blake Cashman, who leads the team with 25 tackles, is questionable with an elbow injury, and the Vikings have seven more questionable players.

Setting the game

Miami enters at 0-3 after losses of 10-24 to Kansas City, 13-35 at San Francisco and 13-27 at Las Vegas. Minnesota has opened 3-0, most recently winning 23-16 at Tampa Bay, 9-3 at Chicago and 39-22 against Green Bay. At U.S. Bank Stadium, the market gives Minnesota an 81.9% win chance and Miami an 18.1% chance.