Steelers' defense tests Cleveland's thin offense

Thursday night's AFC North meeting turns on whether Cleveland can find enough offense against Pittsburgh's elite pass defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 1, with both teams at 2-1.

Neither offense has started efficiently, but Pittsburgh owns the sharper defensive edge. The Steelers are fourth in defensive EPA per play allowed at -0.108; EPA measures the expected points a play adds or prevents, and Pittsburgh has prevented them at a top-tier rate.

Pittsburgh's passing defense sets the terms

Cleveland passes for 195.7 yards per game, 27th among 32 teams, and its offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play at -0.064. That attack draws Pittsburgh's second-ranked pass defense, which allows 211 passing yards per game and ranks 10th in sacks with 3 per game.

The Browns have produced 87.7 rushing yards per game, 29th, while Pittsburgh's rush defense is 20th and allows 113 yards per game. Cleveland's best chance may be to give Quinshon Judkins, who has 124 rushing yards on 42 carries in three games, enough useful early-down work to avoid letting the Steelers dictate passing situations.

A low-output Steelers offense has an opening

Pittsburgh scores 17.7 points per game, 26th, and ranks 28th offensively in EPA per play at -0.139. Its 41.8% offensive success rate—success rate is the share of plays with positive EPA—also ranks 28th, so sustained drives have been scarce.

But Cleveland's defense allows 23.7 points per game, 18th, and 239 passing yards per game, 20th. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 700 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions across three games, and Roman Wilson has 114 receiving yards on 11 catches with one touchdown.

Availability could reshape the fronts

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh's rushing leader with 216 yards on 38 carries, is questionable with a shoulder injury. He matters against a Cleveland defense that is 11th against the run, allowing 120.3 yards per game, while Pittsburgh itself ranks 22nd in rushing offense at 95.7 yards per game.

Cleveland lists Mason Graham, its leader with four sacks, as questionable. The Browns have 2.3 sacks per game, 19th, and Pittsburgh has allowed 2.7 sacks per game, 20th; Graham's availability could affect whether Rodgers gets the clean pockets this offense needs. Eight Steelers are questionable, while Cleveland has 11 questionable players.

Turnovers and short fields

Pittsburgh's defense has collected 2.3 takeaways per game, ninth, against a Cleveland offense that turns the ball over once per game, 16th. Cleveland has only one takeaway per game, 29th, while Pittsburgh turns it over 1.3 times per game, 17th, making the Steelers' ability to create extra possessions a central split in this matchup.

Deshaun Watson has completed 56 of 82 passes for 587 yards, five touchdowns and one interception in three games. Denzel Boston has supplied 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns on nine catches, but those numbers now face a secondary that ranks second in pass-defense efficiency.

Thursday in Cleveland

The Steelers arrive after a 30-27 home win over the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Browns come off a 21-18 home win over the Carolina Panthers. Pittsburgh is first in the AFC North at 2-1 and 1-0 in division games; Cleveland is 2-1 and fourth in the division.

Kickoff is at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH, an open-air venue, at 8:15 PM ET Thursday. Rain is in the forecast with a 24% chance, a temperature of 75 degrees and a 9 mph southwest wind; market prices give Pittsburgh a 57.3% win chance and Cleveland 42.7%.