Ravens' ground game tests Tennessee's soft edge

The hinge

The Tennessee Titans arrive in Baltimore needing to slow a Ravens offense built to punish light boxes, while the availability of Lamar Jackson could alter every layer of that task. The Titans visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET, with Baltimore averaging 30.7 points per game, fourth in the league, to Tennessee's 12.3, 30th.

Tennessee is 0-3 after losses of 7-12, 20-24 and 10-23, though its defense has kept games within reach at 19.7 points allowed per game, 10th among 32 teams. Baltimore is 2-1 and comes off a 34-31 win at Dallas; its 26 points allowed per game rank 21st, leaving the Titans a possible path if they can finally create steady offense.

Baltimore's rushing pressure

The central mismatch is Baltimore's 167.3 rushing yards per game, third in the league, against a Tennessee run defense allowing 126 yards, 24th. Derrick Henry has supplied 301 yards and six rushing touchdowns on 66 attempts in three games, and the Ravens rank third in rushing offense efficiency.

Baltimore also ranks fifth in offensive efficiency at 0.171 EPA per play and a 52.9% success rate. EPA per play measures expected points added on each snap, while success rate is the share of plays with positive EPA; Tennessee's defense has allowed 0.077 EPA per play and a 47.2% success rate, ranking 22nd overall.

Jackson is questionable with a back injury after throwing for 745 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in three games. Zay Flowers, questionable with a hamstring injury, has 234 receiving yards on 10 catches in two games, while Tennessee's pass defense has allowed 199 yards per game, eighth, even as its overall pass-defense efficiency ranks 21st.

Tennessee's narrow route

Cam Ward has completed 55 of 88 passes for 504 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, but Tennessee ranks 31st in pass offense efficiency and 30th in passing yards at 168 per game. The Ravens have been vulnerable through the air by efficiency, ranking 26th in pass defense, and allowing 231.3 passing yards per game, 19th; that is where Ward and Carnell Tate can change the texture of the game.

Tate has 123 receiving yards on 13 catches in three games. The Titans also rank fourth in rushing offense efficiency despite producing 90.3 rushing yards per game, 29th, and Tony Pollard's questionable foot status looms after he posted 173 yards on 38 carries; nine other Titans are questionable, and nine are inactive.

For Baltimore, center Ethan Pocic is out with a knee injury, while Jackson and Flowers are questionable; 12 more Ravens are questionable. The game is at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD, at 1:00 PM ET, with 65-degree rain, a 75% chance of precipitation and 7 mph east wind; the margin-removed market prices give Baltimore an 84% win chance and Tennessee 16%.