Seattle’s top defense confronts Chargers’ stalled offense

The central clash

The Los Angeles Chargers arrive at Seattle needing their offense to find traction against the NFL’s most efficient defense. The Chargers visit the Seahawks on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 4:25 PM ET, and Seattle’s defense has been the defining force through three games.

Los Angeles is 0-3 and ranks 32nd in offensive efficiency at -0.182 expected points added per play. EPA measures how much a play changes a team’s expected scoring; the Chargers have also posted a 45.8% offensive success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA, and rank 29th at 14.7 points per game.

Seattle allows -0.157 EPA per play, first among 32 teams, while permitting positive EPA on only 40.1% of snaps. The Seahawks also rank fifth in points allowed at 16.7 per game, first against the pass at 152 yards allowed per game and sixth against the run at 87.

Can Los Angeles move the ball?

Justin Herbert has thrown for 627 yards with three touchdown passes and four interceptions in three games. His leading receiver, Ladd McConkey, is questionable with a foot injury after catching 12 passes for 183 yards and one touchdown; Los Angeles lists 14 players as questionable.

The Chargers have been better on the ground than through the air, ranking 15th in rushing offense efficiency and 12th with 113 rushing yards per game. Omarion Hampton has 193 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 50 carries, but that approach meets a Seattle run defense ranked sixth in efficiency and sixth in rushing yards allowed.

The passing matchup is even more severe. Los Angeles ranks 32nd in passing offense efficiency and averages 209 passing yards, 22nd in the league, against a Seahawks pass defense ranked seventh in efficiency. Seattle’s 152 passing yards allowed per game is the lowest figure in the league.

Seattle’s passing edge

Seattle’s offense ranks ninth in EPA per play at 0.088 and 10th in passing offense efficiency. That strength meets a Chargers pass defense that ranks 19th in efficiency and allows 244.7 passing yards per game, 20th in the league.

Drew Lock has completed 35 of 48 passes for 422 yards, four touchdown passes and no interceptions in two games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has supplied the explosive production: 27 receptions, 405 yards and six touchdowns in three games.

Seattle averages 276 passing yards per game, fifth in the NFL, and 25 points per game, 14th. The Chargers’ defense is more formidable against the run, ranking eighth in rushing efficiency, so Seattle’s ability to keep its passing game on schedule is the cleaner path in this matchup.

Availability and setting

The Seahawks will be without Jadarian Price, their rushing leader, who is out. Ernest Jones IV, Seattle’s leader with 28 total tackles, is questionable with a neck injury; Cooper Kupp is questionable with a back injury, and Seattle has 14 players listed as questionable.

For Los Angeles, Derwin James Jr. is questionable with a hamstring injury after leading the team with 21 total tackles. Tuli Tuipulotu, who leads the Chargers with two sacks, is questionable, while Dalvin Tomlinson is out with a hamstring injury; Los Angeles also has 14 questionable players.

The game is at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA, under clear skies. The forecast calls for 66 degrees, 5 mph wind from the N, and a 0% chance of rain. Sportsbook prices, with their margin removed, give Seattle a 74.9% win chance and Los Angeles a 25.1% chance.