Bills' No. 1 offense tests Patriots' thin defense

The hinge

Buffalo's explosive offense against a New England defense missing key front-seven and secondary pieces is the central pressure point Sunday, October 4. The Patriots visit the Bills at 1:00 PM ET, with Buffalo bringing a 3-0 record and New England arriving at 1-2.

The Bills lead the league at 33.7 points per game and rank first in offensive efficiency. Their 0.253 offensive EPA per play — expected points added on each snap — and 54.6% success rate, the share of plays with positive EPA, both lead the 32-team league. New England has allowed only 17 points per game, sixth, but its defense is 15th in EPA allowed per play and 27th against the run.

Buffalo's ground edge

James Cook III gives Buffalo the clearest matchup advantage. He has 346 rushing yards on 58 carries with two touchdowns in three games, powering a Bills rushing attack that produces 155 yards per game, fourth in the league, and ranks second in rushing efficiency.

That production meets a Patriots run defense allowing 108.3 yards per game, 17th, but ranking 27th in rushing efficiency. Buffalo can also test a New England pass defense that is sixth in yards allowed at 189.7 per game and ninth in pass-defense efficiency, though the Patriots will be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore, both out with shoulder injuries.

Josh Allen is questionable with a knee injury after posting 786 passing yards, five touchdown passes and two interceptions in three games. Dalton Kincaid has supplied 263 receiving yards and one touchdown on 14 catches, while Buffalo's ability to spread the field matters against a Patriots secondary carrying several uncertain statuses.

New England's narrow path

The Patriots have to find offensive traction without feeding Buffalo extra possessions. They are last in the league at 12 points per game and average 2.7 turnovers, also 32nd; their offense ranks 27th in EPA per play at -0.128 and 28th in rushing efficiency.

Drake Maye has thrown for 585 yards in three games, but his one touchdown pass and six interceptions frame the risk against a Buffalo defense that has 3.3 sacks per game, seventh. Elijah Ponder's two sacks lead New England, while the Patriots have allowed three sacks per game, 28th, making protection another concern.

Rhamondre Stevenson has 116 rushing yards on 31 carries, and Mack Hollins leads the club with 156 receiving yards on 12 receptions. New England's defense has one more major question: leading tackler Robert Spillane, who has 21 tackles, is questionable with a knee injury; 10 more Patriots are questionable and eight are inactive.

Setting

Buffalo's defense has been vulnerable despite the unbeaten start, allowing 26 points per game, 22nd, and ranking 27th in defensive efficiency. New England's ability to turn its 210.3 passing yards per game into sustained scoring will determine whether that weakness becomes relevant; Buffalo allows 275.7 passing yards per game, 28th.

The Bills also list Allen as questionable, along with 13 other players, while defensive tackle T.J. Sanders is doubtful with an appendix injury and four players are inactive. That availability report is especially important for a team whose offense has carried its opening three games.

Kickoff is at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, at 1:00 PM ET Sunday, October 4. The open-air forecast calls for clear conditions, 66 degrees, a six mph southwest wind and a 5% chance of rain; the market assigns Buffalo a 73% win chance and New England 27%.