Bears' ground game tests Jets after Hall's absence

The Chicago Bears’ ability to keep their run game intact without Caleb Williams is the center of Sunday’s matchup with the New York Jets. Chicago hosts New York at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, with Williams out and Jets rushing leader Breece Hall also out. That puts two of the game’s most productive early-season offenses in very different personnel situations.

The Bears are 2-1 and have scored 29.7 points per game, sixth in the league, while the Jets are 1-2 and average 21.3 points, 17th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 17.7 points per game, seventh, against a New York group coming off a 24-31 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Jets have been in close results in two of their three games, losing 17-20 to Green Bay before beating Tennessee 23-10.

Chicago's run-game test

Chicago runs for 184.3 yards per game, first among 32 teams, and its rushing offense ranks first in efficiency. Its 0.114 offensive EPA per play ranks eighth overall; EPA per play measures the expected points a team adds on each snap. The Bears’ 49.5% offensive success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA, is 11th.

That ground attack meets a Jets defense allowing only 87.3 rushing yards per game, seventh, so raw production has been hard to find against New York. But the Jets rank 19th in defensive efficiency overall and 19th against the run, while Chicago’s offense is built around its strongest unit. D’Andre Swift has 253 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 54 carries in three games, but he is questionable with a knee injury.

Williams is out after completing 36 of 55 passes for 407 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in two games. Kalif Raymond gives the offense an established target after posting 214 receiving yards on 19 catches with one touchdown in three games. Chicago has two players out, including Williams and tackle Braxton Jones, and 10 more are questionable; Swift, defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo and tackle Darnell Wright are the injuries most directly tied to Sunday’s fronts.

New York leans on Smith and Wilson

Without Hall, the Jets lose a runner who produced 163 yards and one touchdown on 51 carries in three games. New York already ranks 27th with 92.3 rushing yards per game, and its rushing offense ranks 20th in efficiency. Geno Smith has supplied the counterweight, throwing for 783 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 77 of 102 attempts.

Smith and Garrett Wilson face a Chicago pass defense that ranks fourth in efficiency and allows 219 passing yards per game, 12th. The Jets rank 11th in passing offense and average 261 passing yards per game, while Wilson has 243 yards and two touchdowns on 21 receptions. New York has protected the ball well, committing 0.3 turnovers per game, second in the league, but has allowed three sacks per game, 25th.

The Jets have four players out, led by Hall, plus 10 questionable and four inactive. Linebacker Kingsley Enagbare, who has two sacks, is questionable with a knee injury, and several other front-seven players are also questionable. Chicago’s defense has generated 2.7 takeaways per game, fourth, a pressure point for a Jets offense that has otherwise avoided mistakes.

At Soldier Field

The game is at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, at 1:00 PM ET Sunday, October 4; the open-air forecast calls for clear skies, 67 degrees and a 10 mph WNW wind with a 0% chance of rain. Sportsbooks’ margin-free prices give the Bears a 62.1% win chance and the Jets 37.9%, reflecting Chicago’s home field and the uncertainty around both depleted backfields.