Dallas’ efficient offense tests Houston’s thin front

The hinge

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans turns on whether Dallas’ high-efficiency offense can keep Houston’s pass rush from reshaping the game. The teams meet Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET, with Dallas at 1-2 and Houston at 0-3.

The Cowboys have scored 29.3 points per game, eighth in the league, but their bigger advantage has been efficiency. Their 0.191 offensive EPA per play ranks third among 32 teams; EPA measures the expected points added by each play. Dallas also owns a 50% success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA, and ranks seventh in both passing and rushing offense by efficiency.

Dallas’ protection test

Houston has allowed 25 points per game, 19th, and ranks 20th in defensive EPA allowed per play, but its pressure has been a defining early trait. The Texans average 4.7 sacks per game, second in the league, while Dallas has allowed one sack per game, third fewest.

Dak Prescott has supplied 730 passing yards, seven touchdown passes and one interception in three games. CeeDee Lamb has turned 20 catches into 309 yards and three touchdowns, a difficult assignment for a Houston pass defense ranked 30th by efficiency and 25th in passing yards allowed at 258.7 per game.

Will Anderson Jr., Houston’s sack leader with five, is questionable with an ankle injury. Azeez Al-Shaair, the team leader with 31 total tackles, is out with a groin injury, and Nico Collins is questionable with a hamstring injury; six more Texans are questionable.

Houston’s opening

The Texans have moved the ball through the air, ranking eighth with 264.7 passing yards per game, yet that production has not translated into a productive offense. Houston ranks 24th in offensive EPA per play at -0.102 and 26th in scoring at 18 points per game, a sharp contrast with Dallas’ defense, which ranks 32nd in EPA allowed per play at 0.196.

That Dallas weakness has been broad: the Cowboys rank 31st in both pass and rush defense by efficiency and allow 179.7 rushing yards per game, 31st in the league. Houston ranks 12th in rushing offense by efficiency despite averaging 84.7 rushing yards per game, 30th, leaving David Montgomery’s 103 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 37 carries as a potential route to steadier downs.

C.J. Stroud has thrown for 794 yards without an interception in three games, completing 72 of 120 attempts with three touchdown passes. Dalton Schultz has been his busiest target, posting 19 receptions for 205 yards, and Dallas allows 27.3 points per game, 25th.

What the availability changes

Dallas’ secondary enters depleted. Cornerbacks Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown are out with hamstring injuries, while Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a back injury; two more Cowboys are questionable and eight are inactive.

Houston’s three losses include a 17-19 result at Indianapolis, a 6-20 home loss to Cincinnati and a 31-36 home loss to Buffalo. Dallas has already played two high-scoring home games, losing 31-34 to Baltimore before beating Washington 37-20.

Kickoff

The game is at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX, on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET. Sportsbook prices with the margin removed give Houston a 58.7% win chance and Dallas a 41.3% chance.