Mayfield’s absence tests Tampa Bay against Green Bay’s pass game

The central absence

Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury changes the shape of Sunday’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers’ passing-yards leader is out when Green Bay visits Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 4, at 1:00 PM ET; Tampa Bay enters at 0-3 and Green Bay at 1-2.

That leaves a Tampa Bay offense already ranked 30th in the NFL in offensive efficiency, at -0.154 EPA per play. EPA per play measures the expected points added by each snap, while success rate is the share of plays that produce positive EPA; the Buccaneers’ 39% success rate ranks 30th among 32 teams. Their best offensive route has been the ground game, eighth in rushing efficiency, but Bucky Irving is questionable with a glute injury after leading the club with 180 rushing yards on 40 carries and one touchdown in three games.

Green Bay’s passing route

Green Bay’s clearest advantage is through the air. The Packers are fourth with 281.3 passing yards per game, and Jordan Love has thrown for 844 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions across three games. Christian Watson has been the most productive target, with 17 catches, 284 yards and four touchdowns in three games.

Tampa Bay’s defense makes that far less straightforward than the raw passing matchup suggests. The Buccaneers rank sixth in defensive efficiency, allowing -0.089 EPA per play and a 39% success rate, and they are 15th in pass-defense efficiency. They also allow 220 passing yards per game, 13th in the league, so Love’s volume must contend with a unit that has consistently limited positive plays even while the team’s offense has struggled.

The run game and pressure points

The Packers have not created much balance: they rank 32nd with 48.7 rushing yards per game and 27th in rushing efficiency. That weakness meets Tampa Bay’s strongest defensive trait, as the Buccaneers allow 76 rushing yards per game, second in the league, and rank fourth in rush-defense efficiency. Green Bay’s offensive line is missing guard Aaron Banks and center Jacob Monk, both out, while tackle Anthony Belton is questionable.

Tampa Bay’s own ground game and ball security are equally important against a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in efficiency and allows 30.3 points per game, 30th. The Packers surrender 138.7 rushing yards per game, 28th, but they have produced 2.7 takeaways per game, sixth; Tampa Bay has committed 2.3 turnovers per game, 29th. Green Bay defensive end Lukas Van Ness, who leads the team with three sacks, is questionable with a shoulder injury; the Packers list 14 questionable players overall. Tampa Bay also has 12 questionable players, including linebacker Josiah Trotter, who has 24 tackles in two games.

Raymond James Stadium will be open under clear skies, with a forecast of 89 degrees, 7 mph southeast wind and a 0% chance of rain. Sportsbooks’ margin-free market view gives Green Bay a 61.8% win chance and Tampa Bay a 38.2% chance.