Efficiency
Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season.
Our model: fitted on 2024–25 season, 2025–26 season, 2026–27 season; graded on 2025–26 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.48 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).
Teams
| Team | Offense | Defense | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/play | Success | Pass | Run | EPA/play | Success | Pass | Run | |
 BUF | +0.25, 1st in the league | 55 | +0.36, 4th in the league | +0.14, 2nd in the league | +0.11, 27th in the league | 52 | +0.16, 18th in the league | +0.04, 28th in the league |
 DET | +0.23, 2nd in the league | 56 | +0.36, 3rd in the league | +0.03, 6th in the league | +0.16, 30th in the league | 52 | +0.25, 28th in the league | +0.02, 24th in the league |
 DAL | +0.19, 3rd in the league | 50 | +0.33, 7th in the league | −0.02, 7th in the league | +0.20, 32nd in the league | 54 | +0.38, 31st in the league | +0.05, 30th in the league |
 JAX | +0.19, 4th in the league | 53 | +0.33, 6th in the league | +0.04, 5th in the league | −0.07, 8th in the league | 44 | +0.24, 27th in the league | −0.42, 2nd in the league |
 BAL | +0.17, 5th in the league | 53 | +0.26, 9th in the league | +0.10, 3rd in the league | +0.11, 25th in the league | 45 | +0.23, 26th in the league | −0.07, 13th in the league |
 KC | +0.17, 6th in the league | 54 | +0.37, 2nd in the league | −0.04, 11th in the league | −0.09, 6th in the league | 45 | −0.08, 5th in the league | −0.10, 9th in the league |
 SF | +0.16, 7th in the league | 56 | +0.58, 1st in the league | −0.26, 29th in the league | −0.03, 11th in the league | 48 | −0.08, 3rd in the league | +0.04, 29th in the league |
 CHI | +0.13, 8th in the league | 49 | +0.02, 21st in the league | +0.24, 1st in the league | +0.05, 20th in the league | 47 | +0.04, 12th in the league | +0.06, 31st in the league |
 SEA | +0.09, 9th in the league | 51 | +0.25, 10th in the league | −0.11, 20th in the league | −0.16, 1st in the league | 40 | −0.06, 8th in the league | −0.28, 6th in the league |
 CIN | +0.08, 10th in the league | 48 | +0.23, 12th in the league | −0.15, 23rd in the league | −0.04, 9th in the league | 46 | −0.06, 7th in the league | −0.01, 21st in the league |
 NYJ | +0.08, 11th in the league | 49 | +0.23, 11th in the league | −0.13, 21st in the league | +0.04, 18th in the league | 50 | +0.09, 16th in the league | −0.04, 17th in the league |
 NO | +0.06, 12th in the league | 51 | +0.18, 13th in the league | −0.15, 24th in the league | +0.11, 28th in the league | 53 | +0.17, 20th in the league | +0.03, 27th in the league |
 NYG | +0.06, 13th in the league | 45 | +0.17, 14th in the league | −0.04, 10th in the league | +0.10, 24th in the league | 49 | +0.19, 22nd in the league | −0.04, 18th in the league |
 IND | +0.05, 14th in the league | 50 | +0.33, 8th in the league | −0.27, 30th in the league | +0.19, 31st in the league | 51 | +0.22, 25th in the league | +0.16, 32nd in the league |
 PHI | +0.04, 15th in the league | 41 | +0.14, 15th in the league | −0.06, 14th in the league | −0.02, 12th in the league | 39 | −0.08, 4th in the league | +0.03, 26th in the league |
 LAR | +0.03, 16th in the league | 48 | +0.10, 18th in the league | −0.07, 17th in the league | −0.03, 10th in the league | 44 | 0.00, 10th in the league | −0.07, 12th in the league |
 GB | +0.02, 17th in the league | 42 | +0.11, 17th in the league | −0.20, 27th in the league | +0.11, 26th in the league | 48 | +0.21, 23rd in the league | +0.01, 23rd in the league |
 WSH | +0.01, 18th in the league | 42 | +0.07, 20th in the league | −0.06, 15th in the league | +0.13, 29th in the league | 50 | +0.27, 29th in the league | −0.10, 10th in the league |
 CAR | +0.01, 19th in the league | 43 | +0.10, 19th in the league | −0.14, 22nd in the league | 0.00, 13th in the league | 46 | +0.06, 13th in the league | −0.06, 15th in the league |
 LV | 0.00, 20th in the league | 45 | +0.36, 5th in the league | −0.35, 32nd in the league | −0.13, 3rd in the league | 47 | −0.07, 6th in the league | −0.20, 7th in the league |
 ARI | 0.00, 21st in the league | 50 | +0.02, 22nd in the league | −0.04, 9th in the league | +0.08, 23rd in the league | 47 | +0.21, 24th in the league | −0.05, 16th in the league |
 DEN | −0.06, 22nd in the league | 43 | +0.01, 23rd in the league | −0.16, 25th in the league | +0.08, 21st in the league | 47 | +0.14, 17th in the league | −0.01, 20th in the league |
 CLE | −0.06, 23rd in the league | 42 | +0.13, 16th in the league | −0.29, 31st in the league | +0.01, 15th in the league | 46 | +0.08, 14th in the league | −0.08, 11th in the league |
 HOU | −0.10, 24th in the league | 45 | −0.13, 26th in the league | −0.05, 12th in the league | +0.04, 19th in the league | 49 | +0.27, 30th in the league | −0.29, 5th in the league |
 MIN | −0.11, 25th in the league | 36 | −0.16, 27th in the league | −0.05, 13th in the league | −0.15, 2nd in the league | 38 | −0.20, 1st in the league | −0.06, 14th in the league |
 NE | −0.13, 26th in the league | 44 | −0.03, 24th in the league | −0.23, 28th in the league | 0.00, 14th in the league | 45 | −0.02, 9th in the league | +0.03, 25th in the league |
 TEN | −0.14, 27th in the league | 41 | −0.27, 31st in the league | +0.05, 4th in the league | +0.08, 22nd in the league | 47 | +0.17, 21st in the league | 0.00, 22nd in the league |
 PIT | −0.14, 28th in the league | 42 | −0.12, 25th in the league | −0.16, 26th in the league | −0.11, 4th in the league | 47 | −0.18, 2nd in the league | −0.03, 19th in the league |
 MIA | −0.15, 29th in the league | 38 | −0.19, 28th in the league | −0.09, 18th in the league | +0.02, 17th in the league | 55 | +0.72, 32nd in the league | −0.55, 1st in the league |
 TB | −0.15, 30th in the league | 39 | −0.23, 29th in the league | −0.03, 8th in the league | −0.09, 7th in the league | 39 | +0.08, 15th in the league | −0.31, 4th in the league |
 ATL | −0.17, 31st in the league | 49 | −0.25, 30th in the league | −0.11, 19th in the league | −0.10, 5th in the league | 39 | +0.02, 11th in the league | −0.39, 3rd in the league |
 LAC | −0.18, 32nd in the league | 46 | −0.29, 32nd in the league | −0.06, 16th in the league | +0.01, 16th in the league | 46 | +0.16, 19th in the league | −0.14, 8th in the league |
Players
At least 55 dropbacks
| # | Player | Plays | EPA/play | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brock PurdyQB · SF | 83 | +0.58 | 64 |
| 2 |  Josh AllenQB · BUF | 88 | +0.37 | 55 |
| 3 |  Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 99 | +0.37 | 59 |
| 4 |  Jared GoffQB · DET | 113 | +0.36 | 61 |
| 5 |  Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 92 | +0.36 | 55 |
| 6 |  Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 86 | +0.33 | 55 |
| 7 |  Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 105 | +0.33 | 55 |
| 8 |  Daniel JonesQB · IND | 98 | +0.33 | 51 |
| 9 |  Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 79 | +0.26 | 57 |
| 10 |  Geno SmithQB · NYJ | 111 | +0.23 | 54 |
| 11 |  Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 108 | +0.23 | 50 |
| 12 |  Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 136 | +0.18 | 53 |
| 13 |  Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 59 | +0.14 | 48 |
| 14 |  Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 66 | +0.14 | 44 |
| 15 |  Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 87 | +0.13 | 49 |
| 16 |  Jordan LoveQB · GB | 127 | +0.11 | 45 |
| 17 |  Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 110 | +0.11 | 46 |
| 18 |  Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 120 | +0.10 | 45 |
| 19 |  Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 124 | +0.02 | 52 |
| 20 |  Bo NixQB · DEN | 94 | +0.01 | 44 |
| 21 |  Drake MayeQB · NE | 83 | −0.03 | 47 |
| 22 | Aaron RodgersQB · PIT | 116 | −0.12 | 47 |
| 23 |  C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 127 | −0.13 | 46 |
| 24 |  Malik WillisQB · MIA | 90 | −0.19 | 39 |
| 25 |  Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 105 | −0.22 | 38 |
| 26 |  Cam WardQB · TEN | 92 | −0.27 | 40 |
| 27 |  Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 88 | −0.29 | 44 |