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Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season. How it is computed

So far in 2026, the Buffalo Bills run the most efficient offense (+0.17 EPA a play) and the Los Angeles Chargers the least (−0.23); the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow the fewest on defense (−0.21) and the Dallas Cowboys the most (+0.07). Top passer by EPA a play: Trevor Lawrence (JAX), +0.33 over 230 plays. Top rusher by EPA a play: Kyren Williams (LAR), +0.11 over 125 plays. Top receiver by EPA a play: Tee Higgins (CIN), +0.71 over 67 plays.

Leaderboards

Our model: fitted on 2020 season, 2021 season, 2022 season, 2023 season, 2024 season, 2025 season; graded on 2025 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.47 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).

Teams

Teams
OffenseDefense
BUF+0.17, 1st in the league52+0.23, 5th in the league+0.12, 1st in the league−0.02, 14th in the league49+0.03, 15th in the league−0.12, 9th in the league
JAX+0.14, 2nd in the league51+0.31, 1st in the league−0.03, 12th in the league−0.14, 4th in the league45+0.01, 12th in the league−0.34, 1st in the league
DET+0.13, 3rd in the league54+0.26, 3rd in the league−0.03, 8th in the league+0.02, 24th in the league51+0.06, 22nd in the league−0.05, 20th in the league
SF+0.11, 4th in the league55+0.23, 4th in the league−0.01, 7th in the league−0.04, 12th in the league46+0.01, 13th in the league−0.11, 12th in the league
CIN+0.10, 5th in the league54+0.28, 2nd in the league−0.21, 28th in the league+0.02, 23rd in the league500.00, 11th in the league+0.05, 30th in the league
KC+0.07, 6th in the league53+0.13, 8th in the league−0.01, 6th in the league−0.06, 11th in the league48+0.05, 18th in the league−0.20, 6th in the league
DAL+0.06, 7th in the league50+0.11, 11th in the league0.00, 4th in the league+0.07, 32nd in the league49+0.05, 17th in the league+0.10, 32nd in the league
LAR+0.05, 8th in the league53+0.04, 13th in the league+0.05, 2nd in the league−0.07, 10th in the league46−0.05, 8th in the league−0.09, 16th in the league
HOU+0.03, 9th in the league47+0.12, 10th in the league−0.11, 21st in the league−0.02, 15th in the league47+0.06, 19th in the league−0.14, 8th in the league
GB+0.02, 10th in the league46+0.13, 9th in the league−0.15, 27th in the league−0.11, 7th in the league46−0.11, 6th in the league−0.11, 11th in the league
LV0.00, 11th in the league48+0.20, 6th in the league−0.30, 32nd in the league+0.05, 28th in the league52+0.14, 30th in the league−0.04, 22nd in the league
CHI−0.01, 12th in the league49+0.01, 17th in the league−0.03, 11th in the league−0.11, 6th in the league46−0.05, 9th in the league−0.21, 5th in the league
NO−0.01, 13th in the league48+0.05, 12th in the league−0.12, 23rd in the league+0.05, 29th in the league49+0.06, 20th in the league+0.05, 31st in the league
NYG−0.02, 14th in the league460.00, 19th in the league−0.05, 14th in the league−0.07, 9th in the league46−0.13, 4th in the league−0.01, 27th in the league
CAR−0.02, 15th in the league47+0.03, 14th in the league−0.11, 20th in the league−0.02, 16th in the league48+0.09, 25th in the league−0.16, 7th in the league
DEN−0.03, 16th in the league43+0.01, 18th in the league−0.08, 19th in the league−0.03, 13th in the league45+0.01, 14th in the league−0.09, 14th in the league
SEA−0.04, 17th in the league47+0.03, 15th in the league−0.12, 24th in the league−0.15, 3rd in the league43−0.20, 2nd in the league−0.08, 17th in the league
NYJ−0.04, 18th in the league49+0.01, 16th in the league−0.11, 22nd in the league+0.01, 22nd in the league50+0.03, 16th in the league−0.01, 25th in the league
BAL−0.04, 19th in the league47−0.08, 22nd in the league−0.01, 5th in the league+0.03, 25th in the league48+0.12, 28th in the league−0.09, 15th in the league
WSH−0.05, 20th in the league44−0.03, 20th in the league−0.08, 18th in the league−0.02, 17th in the league51−0.01, 10th in the league−0.02, 24th in the league
NE−0.07, 21st in the league50+0.14, 7th in the league−0.29, 31st in the league0.00, 19th in the league49+0.08, 24th in the league−0.11, 10th in the league
PIT−0.07, 22nd in the league45−0.09, 23rd in the league−0.03, 9th in the league−0.12, 5th in the league47−0.06, 7th in the league−0.23, 4th in the league
IND−0.08, 23rd in the league48−0.12, 25th in the league−0.03, 10th in the league+0.05, 27th in the league48+0.10, 27th in the league+0.01, 29th in the league
ATL−0.08, 24th in the league46−0.11, 24th in the league−0.06, 16th in the league−0.01, 18th in the league49+0.06, 21st in the league−0.10, 13th in the league
ARI−0.11, 25th in the league50−0.16, 26th in the league−0.04, 13th in the league+0.07, 31st in the league47+0.13, 29th in the league0.00, 28th in the league
CLE−0.12, 26th in the league45−0.05, 21st in the league−0.22, 29th in the league−0.08, 8th in the league44−0.12, 5th in the league−0.02, 23rd in the league
TEN−0.12, 27th in the league45−0.21, 30th in the league0.00, 3rd in the league+0.06, 30th in the league52+0.15, 31st in the league−0.06, 19th in the league
MIA−0.13, 28th in the league44−0.20, 28th in the league−0.05, 15th in the league+0.01, 20th in the league53+0.31, 32nd in the league−0.28, 2nd in the league
TB−0.15, 29th in the league45−0.23, 32nd in the league−0.07, 17th in the league−0.21, 1st in the league43−0.17, 3rd in the league−0.26, 3rd in the league
PHI−0.18, 30th in the league41−0.19, 27th in the league−0.15, 26th in the league+0.04, 26th in the league47+0.07, 23rd in the league−0.01, 26th in the league
MIN−0.18, 31st in the league43−0.23, 31st in the league−0.13, 25th in the league−0.17, 2nd in the league43−0.27, 1st in the league−0.05, 21st in the league
LAC−0.23, 32nd in the league42−0.21, 29th in the league−0.25, 30th in the league+0.01, 21st in the league48+0.09, 26th in the league−0.07, 18th in the league

Players

At least 138 dropbacks

Passing
#
1 Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX230+0.3356
2 Joe BurrowQB · CIN301+0.2859
3 Jared GoffQB · DET281+0.2559
4 Brock PurdyQB · SF237+0.2358
5 Josh AllenQB · BUF240+0.2354
6 Kirk CousinsQB · MIN308+0.2157
7 Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI202+0.1554
8 Drake MayeQB · NE272+0.1454
9 Jordan LoveQB · GB344+0.1352
10 Patrick MahomesQB · KC261+0.1356
11 C.J. StroudQB · HOU291+0.1252
12 Dak PrescottQB · DAL341+0.1152
13 Tyler ShoughQB · NO316+0.0552
14 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR343+0.0454
15 Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL194+0.0350
16 Bryce YoungQB · CAR317+0.0249
17 Geno SmithQB · NYJ293+0.0152
18 Bo NixQB · DEN289+0.0145
19 Jayden DanielsQB · WSH226−0.0349
20 Sam DarnoldQB · SEA214−0.0450
21 Jalen HurtsQB · PHI157−0.0741
22 Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE269−0.0751
23 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT300−0.0947
24 Jameis WinstonQB · NYG175−0.1143
25 Daniel JonesQB · IND307−0.1148
26 Baker MayfieldQB · TB154−0.1942
27 Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL316−0.1952
28 Kyler MurrayQB · MIN164−0.2149
29 Cam WardQB · TEN247−0.2145
30 Malik WillisQB · MIA220−0.2145
31 Justin HerbertQB · LAC243−0.2243