Giants' ground game tests Arizona's soft run defense

The New York Giants can lean on their running game against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has struggled to control the ground. Arizona visits the Giants on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET, with the hosts bringing a 2-1 record and the Cardinals arriving at 1-2.

The game also pits two defenses with troubling efficiency numbers against offenses that have found different paths to production. Arizona has scored 21 points per game, 18th in the league, while New York is at 15.3, 28th; yet the Cardinals' 26th-ranked run defense may offer the Giants their clearest route to sustained offense.

The matchup on the ground

Cam Skattebo has carried New York's rushing production with 177 yards on 50 attempts and one touchdown in three games. The Giants run for 118 yards per game, 11th in the league, and rank 10th in rushing offense efficiency; Arizona allows 127.7 rushing yards per game, 26th, and ranks 18th in rush-defense efficiency.

Arizona can answer with its own run game. Jeremiyah Love has 160 rushing yards on 41 attempts and one touchdown in three games, while the Cardinals rank ninth in rushing offense efficiency. New York has allowed 104.3 rushing yards per game, 13th, but its rush-defense efficiency ranks 20th, making early-down control a significant test for both fronts.

The Cardinals' broader offensive profile is less certain. Their offense produces -0.003 EPA per play, 20th in the league; EPA per play measures the expected points added by each snap. Arizona's 50% success rate, the share of plays with positive EPA, is 20th, and it meets a Giants defense that allows 0.097 EPA per play, 24th, with a 48.8% success rate allowed that also ranks 24th.

Passing options and the injury report

Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 652 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in three games for Arizona, while Trey McBride leads the club with 26 catches, 211 yards and two touchdowns. They face a New York pass defense allowing 227.7 yards per game, 16th, though its pass-defense efficiency is 22nd.

New York's passing picture changes because Jaxson Dart, who has 250 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in two games, is on IR. Isaiah Likely has provided 15 receptions, 124 yards and two touchdowns in three games, but the Giants rank 31st with 159.7 passing yards per game.

Arizona's leading tackler, Jack Gibbens, is questionable with a shoulder injury after posting 24 tackles; cornerback Garrett Williams is questionable with an Achilles injury, and linebacker Josh Sweat is questionable with a groin injury. The Cardinals list 11 players as questionable. For New York, wide receiver Malik Nabers is questionable, left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable with a groin injury, and the team lists 10 questionable players.

Setting and market view

New York's most recent game was a 12-7 home win over the Tennessee Titans, while Arizona last fell 30-36 on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. MetLife Stadium is expected to be cloudy, with a temperature of 64 degrees, an 8 mph east wind and a 13% chance of rain.

Sportsbooks' margin-free prices give Arizona a 56.1% win chance and New York a 43.9% chance.