49ers' passing game targets Denver's vulnerable defense

The matchup

San Francisco’s passing attack is the central pressure point when the Denver Broncos visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, October 4. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET, and the 49ers bring the league’s second-highest scoring offense into a matchup with a Broncos defense that has been vulnerable through the air.

The 49ers average 32.7 points per game, second among 32 teams, and Denver allows 254.3 passing yards per game, 24th. San Francisco is ninth in passing yards at 263 per game, but its passing offense ranks first in efficiency; its 0.16 EPA per play means the offense adds 0.16 expected points on an average snap. The 49ers also post a 55.8% success rate, the share of plays with positive EPA, while Denver’s defense permits a 46.8% success rate and ranks 21st in defensive efficiency.

Denver has also allowed 143.7 rushing yards per game, 30th, against a 49ers ground game producing 136.3, sixth. That gives Christian McCaffrey room to matter alongside the passing game, even though San Francisco’s rush offense ranks 29th by efficiency. The Broncos have created 2.3 takeaways per game, 11th, a potential counter against a 49ers offense that has committed only 0.7 turnovers per game, fifth.

Denver's difficult path

The Broncos need more from an offense averaging 20 points per game, 22nd, against a San Francisco defense allowing 16.7 points, third. Denver’s 201.7 passing yards per game rank 27th, and its offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play at -0.061; the 49ers rank second in pass defense efficiency and allow 215 passing yards per game, 10th.

Bo Nix has thrown for 605 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions over three games. He will be working against a 49ers front and coverage unit that has allowed no sacks taken by its own offense, best in the league, while Denver has recorded 2.7 sacks per game, 15th. Zach Allen leads the Broncos with three sacks, and Alex Singleton has 33 total tackles.

Denver’s run game has produced 81 yards per game, 31st, while San Francisco allows 105.7 rushing yards per game, 15th. J.K. Dobbins leads Denver with 121 rushing yards on 35 attempts but is questionable with a hip injury; Jaylen Waddle, the Broncos’ receiving leader with 150 yards, is questionable. Denver also lists two more players as questionable, one out and eight inactive.

Availability and setting

Brock Purdy has supplied 789 passing yards, nine touchdown passes and one interception in three games, while McCaffrey has 166 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 35 attempts. George Kittle leads San Francisco with 174 receiving yards and three touchdowns but is questionable with an Achilles injury. Keion White, who leads the 49ers with two sacks, is questionable, and Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury; San Francisco has 12 more questionable players and six inactive.

The 49ers enter at 3-0 and Denver is 2-1. Levi’s Stadium is open-air, with a cloudy forecast of 89 degrees, NW wind at 1 mph and a 0% chance of rain. Sportsbooks’ margin-free prices give San Francisco a 57% win chance and Denver a 43% chance.