Falcons' ground game tests Saints' vulnerable front

The central matchup

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints both enter at 1-2, with a division game that turns on Atlanta's powerful rushing attack against New Orleans' soft run defense. Kickoff is Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET, with the Caesars Superdome giving the Saints a chance to build on an offense that has moved the ball through the air.

Atlanta is second in the league at 173 rushing yards per game, while New Orleans has allowed 128.7 per game, 27th among 32 defenses. Bijan Robinson has supplied 349 yards and two touchdowns on 66 carries, a workload that can keep the Falcons out of the passing situations that have hurt them most.

Yards versus efficiency

The Saints bring the NFL's second-ranked passing game at 304 yards per game, and Tyler Shough has thrown for 912 yards with eight touchdown passes in three games. Chris Olave has been the centerpiece with 375 receiving yards, but he is questionable with a hamstring injury against a Falcons defense allowing 273.3 passing yards per game.

That surface matchup favors New Orleans, yet Atlanta's defense is fourth in EPA allowed per play, a measure of the expected points a defense gives up on each snap. Its 38.5% defensive success rate allowed, the share of opponents' plays producing positive EPA, is also one of the league's stingiest marks; the Falcons have made offenses earn their yards.

New Orleans has been more effective offensively than its 1-2 record suggests, ranking 12th in offensive EPA per play with a 50.5% success rate. But the Saints have also lost 2.3 turnovers per game, 29th in the league, and have allowed 3.3 sacks per game; Atlanta's 31st-ranked offense in EPA per play needs those disruptive moments to offset its scoring average of 17 points.

Availability shapes both sides

Atlanta may have to make late decisions at quarterback, where Michael Penix Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after throwing for 256 yards in his one game. Chris Lindstrom is questionable with a concussion and Jawaan Taylor is questionable with ribs, two offensive-line concerns in a game built around Robinson; 12 Falcons are questionable, while six are inactive.

For New Orleans, leading tackler Kaden Elliss is out with a calf injury, and edge rushers Chase Young and Cameron Jordan are questionable. Olave's hamstring status matters just as much for Shough, while Travis Etienne Jr., the Saints' rushing leader with 128 yards, is on IR; 16 Saints are questionable and seven are inactive.

The game is at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET. Sportsbooks' prices give New Orleans a 54% chance to win.