Kain Medrano's pick-six lifts Commanders past Seahawks

The turnover that changed everything

Kain Medrano turned a one-score fourth quarter into Washington’s winning margin when he intercepted Sam Darnold at midfield and returned it 50 yards for a touchdown with 3:57 left. The Commanders held on after one more Seattle touchdown to beat the Seahawks 33-31 Sunday, September 27, at Northwest Stadium.

Seattle had the ball down 27-24 when Medrano stepped in front of a pass intended for A. Barner. Washington’s win probability leaped from 63.1% before the snap to 97.2% afterward, the game’s largest swing, even though the extra point missed wide left. Darnold answered with a 7-yard touchdown pass at 2:51 to pull Seattle within 33-31, but a 19-yard R. White run at 1:55 pushed Washington’s win probability from 61.7% to 83.8%.

The final score was not a reflection of total production alone. Seattle gained 437 passing and rushing yards to Washington’s 265 and posted a 59% success rate, compared with 35% for the Commanders. Success rate is the share of plays that add positive expected points, while EPA per play measures how much a play changes a team’s expected points; Seattle’s -0.01 EPA per play and Washington’s -0.02 show how both offenses mixed explosive results with too many empty snaps. The decisive separator was turnovers: Seattle gave away three possessions, while Washington gave away none.

Washington made its short fields count

The Commanders converted Seattle’s first mistake immediately. After a Seahawks fumble gave Washington possession at the Seattle 21, the Commanders needed four plays to score on a 6-yard touchdown pass and lead 7-0. Seattle’s response was more methodical: a 10-play, 90-yard march that crossed the first-quarter break and ended with Sam Darnold’s 1-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Washington took back control with an eight-play, 60-yard drive for an 11-yard touchdown pass and a 14-7 lead. The teams traded 57-yard field goals in the final minute of the half, leaving the Commanders ahead 17-10. Seattle had driven 78 yards on 11 plays before turning the ball over on downs, a missed chance that mattered once the game tightened late.

Marcus Mariota did not pile up yards, but he made Washington’s passing snaps count. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 183 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, producing 0.22 EPA per pass play. His 30-yard touchdown throw to Terry McLaurin after halftime came on a three-play, 43-yard possession that followed a Seattle interception, stretching the lead to 24-10 with 10:43 left in the third quarter. McLaurin finished with six catches for 77 yards and the score.

Washington could not establish much consistency on the ground. Jacory Croskey-Merritt carried 19 times for 36 yards, and the Commanders’ rushing attack produced -0.27 EPA per play. But Mariota avoided the giveaway that could have handed Seattle another short field, even while taking two sacks, and his offense did enough on the possessions Seattle’s turnovers created.

Seattle’s rally met one last mistake

Seattle did not disappear after falling behind by 14. A 13-yard touchdown pass cut the deficit to 24-17, and the Seahawks later marched 80 yards in nine plays over 4:19 to tie the game at 24-24 on Smith-Njigba’s 11-yard touchdown catch. Smith-Njigba’s 10 receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns repeatedly gave Darnold a reliable answer.

Washington’s next possession took 7:19 off the fourth-quarter clock. The Commanders ran 13 plays and gained 42 yards before D. Stevens made a 36-yard field goal for a 27-24 lead. Earlier on that drive, Mariota found McLaurin for 6 yards to the Seattle 34 at 8:40; Washington’s win probability moved from 39.9% to 53.8% on that play.

Darnold’s line captured Seattle’s threat and its fatal flaw. He completed 31 of 45 attempts for 379 yards and four touchdowns, while Seattle generated 0.16 EPA per pass play and took no sacks. Yet his two interceptions, along with the earlier fumble, outweighed a passing attack that accounted for 393 yards; Seattle’s rushing offense managed 44 yards and -0.42 EPA per rush play.

Washington is now 1-2 and hosts the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, October 4. Seattle falls to 2-1 and returns home to face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, October 4.