Jaguars’ 18-play march overwhelms Patriots, 35-6

The third-quarter break

Jacksonville’s 18-play march did more than consume 8:42 of the third quarter; it turned a 14-3 halftime margin into a game the Patriots could not recover. Trevor Lawrence finished the 80-yard drive with a 17-yard touchdown pass at 1:08, and an interception on New England’s next play set up a 5-yard rushing score. The Jacksonville Jaguars rode that sequence to a 35-6 victory over the New England Patriots on Sunday, September 27.

The earlier turnover had set the tone. With New England’s win probability at 51.6% late in the first quarter, Drake Maye was sacked at the Jacksonville 42 and fumbled; the Jaguars recovered at their own 38, pushing their win probability to 59.5%. Jacksonville then drove 62 yards in 10 plays over 5:27, with Lawrence delivering a 12-yard touchdown pass for the game’s first points.

Early chances disappear

Lawrence’s lone interception briefly gave New England a short field at the Jacksonville 21 early in the second quarter. The Patriots gained only 4 yards in six plays but converted a 35-yard field goal to pull within 7-3. Jacksonville answered immediately with a nine-play, 65-yard drive that lasted 4:46, and Lawrence found Jakobi Meyers for a 10-yard touchdown and a 14-3 lead.

New England had another opportunity before halftime, moving 70 yards in 11 plays. But Maye’s pass was intercepted in the end zone at 1:02, a touchback that dropped the Patriots’ win probability from 27.2% to 15.6%, the largest swing of the game. Jacksonville missed a field goal before the break, but the Patriots had still failed to turn either takeaway or sustained march into a touchdown.

The Patriots opened the third quarter at the Jacksonville 48, then missed a field goal after a 10-play possession. From there, the Jaguars took control through possession rather than one explosive play. Their 18-play drive ended with Lawrence’s 17-yard scoring throw, and a 31-yard interception return gave Jacksonville the ball at the New England 5; one play later, the lead was 28-3.

Efficiency behind the score

New England’s 40-yard field goal at 13:17 of the fourth quarter made it 28-6, but Jacksonville answered one more time. Bhayshul Tuten capped an eight-play, 49-yard drive from the New England 49 with a 1-yard touchdown at 8:02. Tuten finished with 15 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown.

The raw yardage was close: New England posted 328 passing-and-rushing yards, while Jacksonville had 319. The meaningful separation came in EPA per play, which measures the expected points added by each snap: Jacksonville was at 0.27 and New England at -0.17. Success rate, the share of plays producing positive EPA, also favored the Jaguars 51% to 42%.

Jacksonville was efficient both ways, posting 0.37 EPA per pass play and 0.17 per rush play; New England managed 0.13 through the air but -0.52 on the ground. Lawrence completed 19 of 29 passes for 182 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, while Meyers supplied seven catches for 64 yards and a score. Maye completed 14 of 25 for 199 yards but threw two interceptions and no touchdowns; Mack Hollins had six receptions for 87 yards, and TreVeyon Henderson managed 23 yards on eight carries.

Next

The Patriots are 1-2 and visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, October 4. The Jaguars are 2-1 and visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 4.