Dallas' passing game meets Tampa Bay's stubborn front

The 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring a battered offense into Arlington to face the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, October 8. This game turns on whether Dallas can let its passing game dictate terms against one of the league's more efficient defenses, and whether Tampa Bay can lean on its ground game without Baker Mayfield.

Dallas arrives after a 34-30 win at Houston, while Tampa Bay has opened with four losses, each by single digits. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium.

Dallas' aerial test

The Cowboys are third in scoring at 30.5 points per game and fifth in offensive efficiency. Their 0.17 EPA per play — expected points added on each snap — gives them a clear contrast with Tampa Bay's 0-4 start, but the Buccaneers defense is fourth in EPA allowed per play at -0.072.

Dak Prescott has driven that production with 1,065 passing yards, eight touchdown passes and one interception. CeeDee Lamb has 498 receiving yards and four touchdowns, a high-volume threat against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 12th in efficiency and allows 214.3 passing yards per game.

Tampa Bay's defensive calling card is its run defense, which gives up 78.5 yards per game, third fewest in the NFL. That places pressure on a Dallas rushing attack ranked 25th in yards, even with Javonte Williams carrying 231 yards and five touchdowns.

Tampa Bay's reduced margin

The Buccaneers can answer on the ground: their rushing offense ranks 10th in efficiency, with Bucky Irving producing 241 yards on 56 carries. That is the cleanest path into a Dallas defense that is 29th against the run by efficiency and allows 150.3 rushing yards per game.

But Mayfield is out after throwing for 615 yards in three games, and Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st in EPA per play at -0.142. The unit has allowed four sacks per game, most in the league, while its 41% success rate — the share of plays with positive EPA — leaves little room for stalled possessions.

Irving is questionable with a glute injury, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out; Tampa Bay lists 14 players as questionable. Dallas lists cornerback Cobie Durant and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown as doubtful, with safety Malik Hooker questionable, a thin secondary picture against a pass-heavy opponent.

At AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, at 8:15 PM ET, sportsbooks' prices give Dallas a 79% chance to win and Tampa Bay a 21% chance.