Raiders passing game tests a depleted Patriots secondary

The Las Vegas Raiders arrive at 3-1 with a high-end passing attack, while the 2-2 New England Patriots need their defense to keep another game within reach. Sunday, October 11, at 1:00 PM ET turns on whether New England can cover through a battered secondary and whether its offense can avoid feeding Las Vegas' takeaway machine.

Las Vegas' air attack

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 1,026 yards and 11 touchdowns in four starts, giving the Raiders the NFL's third-ranked pass offense by efficiency. EPA per play measures the expected points a play adds; Las Vegas is at 0.054 overall, 13th in the league, with a 46.2% success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA.

That is a demanding assignment for a Patriots pass defense allowing 205.5 yards per game, sixth fewest in the NFL, and ranking 10th by efficiency. But New England will be without cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III and Channing Canada, while Charles Woods is questionable; the coverage depth behind them matters against Tre Tucker, who has 233 receiving yards on 15 catches.

The Raiders' 30-27 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs followed three wins in which they scored at least 26 points. Their defense has supplied 3 takeaways per game, first in the league, and 3.5 sacks per game, fifth, a particularly sharp test for a Patriots offense tied to the league's most turnovers at 2.5 per game.

New England's response

Drake Maye has 854 passing yards in four starts, but his seven interceptions help explain an offense scoring 16.3 points per game, 30th in the league. Las Vegas has protected its own quarterback well, allowing only 1.3 sacks per game, but its defense also ranks seventh in EPA allowed per play at -0.053, an indicator of how much it suppresses opponents' expected points.

New England may need Rhamondre Stevenson, who is questionable with a knee injury after producing 163 rushing yards on 44 attempts. The Patriots are 11th in rushing yards per game, yet their rush offense ranks 28th by efficiency; Las Vegas counters with the 10th-ranked rush defense by efficiency despite allowing 134.5 rushing yards per game.

Mack Hollins, New England's receiving-yard leader with 209, is out with a calf injury. Stevenson is questionable, and the Patriots list six players out and seven questionable overall; for Las Vegas, leading rusher Ashton Jeanty is questionable with an ankle/foot injury, while Jalen Nailor and Trey Zuhn III are out.

At Gillette Stadium

The Patriots come home after a 29-26 win at Buffalo, while Las Vegas is looking to answer its 30-27 loss to Kansas City. The Raiders and Patriots meet Sunday, October 11, at 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, where sportsbooks' prices give New England a 64% chance to win.