Chargers' ground game tests Denver's vulnerable front

The hinge

The Denver Broncos, 2-2, arrive in Inglewood needing their defense to hold up against a Los Angeles Chargers team still seeking its first win at 0-4. Sunday, October 11, turns on whether the Chargers can turn their productive rushing game into the control their passing offense has lacked.

It is an AFC West game with two offenses near the bottom of the scoring table: Denver averages 18.5 points, 27th in the league, while Los Angeles is at 16.8, 29th. The Broncos have been uneven, most recently losing 24-14 at San Francisco, while the Chargers fell 30-23 at Seattle.

Hampton's opening

Los Angeles has a direct path to the matchup it wants. The Chargers rank 10th with 121.5 rushing yards per game, and Omarion Hampton has supplied 238 yards and three touchdowns on 59 carries.

Denver has allowed 142.8 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league. That puts Hampton against a front that has not consistently stopped early-down runs, and it matters because the Chargers' rushing offense ranks 11th while their passing offense sits 31st.

EPA, expected points added per play, measures the value a play creates for a team. Denver's defense has allowed 0.093 EPA per play, 28th, while opponents have posted a 47.2% success rate, the share of plays with positive EPA; Los Angeles needs Hampton to keep that pressure on the Broncos' front.

Turnovers and protection

The Broncos can answer by attacking a Chargers offense that has given the ball away 2.5 times per game, 31st in the NFL. Denver is ninth with 2.3 takeaways per game, and Justin Herbert enters with six interceptions alongside 816 passing yards in four starts.

Bo Nix has thrown for 819 yards with five touchdown passes and three interceptions in his four starts. But Denver's own ground game is 29th at 81.3 yards per game, a poor fit against a Chargers defense ranked ninth against the run; J.K. Dobbins has 161 rushing yards.

Protection may determine how much either quarterback can settle in. Los Angeles has allowed three sacks per game, 29th, while Denver has produced two per game, and Khalil Mack leads the Chargers with three sacks as their defense ranks seventh with 3.3 per game.

The absences

Denver will play without cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, both out, along with linebacker Jonathon Cooper, also out. Those losses put added responsibility on a defense facing Herbert and Tre' Harris, whose 209 receiving yards lead the Chargers.

The Chargers are without tackles Joe Alt and Isaiah World, guards Trevor Penning and Kayode Awosika, and receiver Quentin Johnston. Ladd McConkey is questionable with a foot injury; six more Chargers are out, including safety Derwin James Jr., while Trey Lance is doubtful and two more players are questionable.

The Broncos and Chargers meet at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, October 11, at 4:05 PM ET. Sportsbooks' prices give Denver a 63% chance to win.