Falcons' front meets Derrick Henry without Lamar Jackson

The central collision

The Baltimore Ravens arrive at 3-1 with their quarterback sidelined, while the Atlanta Falcons are 2-2 and built around the NFL's stingiest run defense. Sunday, October 11, at 8:20 PM ET, this game turns on whether Baltimore can preserve its ground-game identity without Lamar Jackson at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Derrick Henry gives the Ravens a clear route. His 374 rushing yards and seven touchdowns have powered an offense that ranks fourth in rushing yards per game, but Atlanta permits just 48.3 rushing yards per game, the best mark in the league.

That is more than a raw-yardage matchup. Baltimore is fifth in rushing efficiency, while Atlanta ranks third in rush defense by EPA per play, a measure of expected points added on each snap. The Falcons also hold opponents to a 39.4% success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA.

Atlanta can answer with Bijan Robinson, who has 494 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Falcons are second in rushing yards per game, and Baltimore's run defense ranks 12th in EPA allowed per play, leaving Robinson as the home offense's most direct way to control the game.

A changed Baltimore offense

Jackson is out with an ankle injury after throwing for 967 yards and six touchdowns in his four starts. Baltimore still ranks sixth in offensive EPA per play at 0.142, but that production now has to travel without the player who led its passing attack.

Zay Flowers is questionable with a foot injury after posting 352 receiving yards in three games, another complication for a passing game that ranks seventh in efficiency. Atlanta has allowed 276.5 passing yards per game, 29th in the league, but the Ravens will also be without center Cam Jurgens; guard Andrew Vorhees is questionable.

The Falcons have won their past two games by scores of 45-24 at New Orleans and 35-14 at Green Bay. Michael Penix Jr. has 479 passing yards and two touchdown passes in his two starts, while Drake London leads Atlanta with 370 receiving yards; Za'Darius Smith is questionable with a concussion/neck injury after recording three sacks in three games. Atlanta also has three more questionable players, while Baltimore has Marlon Humphrey questionable.

The game is Sunday, October 11, at 8:20 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium; sportsbooks' prices give Atlanta a 61% chance to win.