Heat's league-fastest pace meets Timberwolves' top-five defense

The Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33), owners of last season's fifth-best effective field goal defense, visit the Miami Heat (43-39), the league's fastest team, at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 21.

All figures are from last season, with this season's rosters. Miami played at a pace of 105.4, first in the NBA, while Minnesota was 10th at 102.5. The Wolves' defense held opponents to a 52.9 effective field goal percentage, fifth in the league.

Miami's offense ranked 13th in rating at 114.5 and shot 54.2% effective, 17th. Its strength is ball security: a turnover rate of 11.2 was fourth best, so Minnesota, 15th in forcing turnovers, may find few easy transition chances.

Minnesota got to the line often, seventh in free throw rate at 0.285, but Miami's defense allowed the fourth-lowest rate, 0.24. On the defensive glass, the Wolves were 20th at 73.7%, and the Heat were eighth at 74.9%.

Anthony Edwards averaged 28.8 points for Minnesota last season, Rudy Gobert pulled down 11.5 rebounds with 1.6 blocks, and LaMelo Ball handed out 7.1 assists.

For Miami, Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 27.6 points and shot 62.4% from the field in 36 games. Bam Adebayo grabbed 10 rebounds a game.

Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo, who played 30.5 minutes a game, is out. Miami lists center Vladislav Goldin, at 13.4 minutes a game, as day-to-day.

Both teams arrive off rough endings. Minnesota lost four of its last five games, all against San Antonio in the playoffs, including a 139-109 defeat. Miami lost 127-126 at Charlotte in the play-in.

Sportsbooks' prices give the Heat a 52% chance to win. Keel's projection, built from the players available, makes it 54% for Miami and 46% for Minnesota.