Spurs' fourth-ranked defense faces Dallas' sharp shooting in San Antonio

The Dallas Mavericks (4-3), owners of one of the league's best-shooting offenses, visit the San Antonio Spurs (5-2), winners of five straight and owners of the NBA's fourth-best defense, on Wednesday night at 9:30 p.m. ET.

The Mavericks make their shots. Their effective field goal percentage of 55.4 ranks sixth, the main reason an offense with few free throws still scores 110.9 points per 100 possessions.

San Antonio allows 104.7 points per 100 possessions, fourth in the league, and opponents post an effective field goal percentage of 50.6 against it, sixth. Dallas' best weapon runs into one of the tightest defenses it will see.

Victor Wembanyama closes the paint with four blocks a game, and he also averages 25.7 points and 10.7 rebounds.

The possession battle leans the same way. The Spurs turn the ball over on 11.2% of their possessions, second-fewest in the league, and Dallas ranks 21st at forcing turnovers.

The Mavericks give it away on 14.2% of their own trips, 23rd. Their defensive rebounding ranks 26th, which hands San Antonio second chances on top of clean ones.

Cooper Flagg carries Dallas with 25.2 points and 6.5 assists a game. He adds 2.5 steals, a kind of disruption the rest of the Mavericks' defense rarely produces.

De'Aaron Fox runs the Spurs' offense at 6.4 assists a game.

Dallas is short-handed in the frontcourt and on the wing. Dereck Lively II and Max Christie are out, as are Tarik Biberovic and Sergio De Larrea. Santi Aldama, who plays 26.8 minutes a game, is questionable.

San Antonio is without Tobias Harris, who plays 27.8 minutes a game, and Jayden Quaintance, both out.

The Spurs won the first meeting 122-106 in Dallas on Saturday, October 24. The Mavericks then won three in a row before a 115-100 home loss to Sacramento in their last game.

Sportsbooks' prices give the Spurs an 82% chance to win. Our projection puts it at 83%, with San Antonio by 12.2 points.