Vikings hold off Buccaneers behind late Reichard kicks

A fast jolt, then a timely answer

The Minnesota Vikings did not need a smooth offensive afternoon to leave Raymond James Stadium with a 23-16 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 27. An 86-yard punt-return touchdown gave Minnesota its early separation, and Will Reichard’s field goals from 56 and 43 yards put away a game that kept tightening in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota opened with an eight-play, 40-yard possession that lasted 4:34 and ended with Reichard’s 54-yard field goal. Tampa Bay then went three-and-out, and the return touchdown at 8:43 of the first quarter pushed the score to MIN 10, TB 0; Minnesota’s win probability jumped from 63.7% to 76.9% on that play.

The Buccaneers answered immediately rather than letting the special-teams score define the quarter. Baker Mayfield directed a five-play, 80-yard drive in 1:54, hitting a 40-yard touchdown pass to make it MIN 10, TB 7, before Tampa Bay’s nine-play, 42-yard series produced a 28-yard field goal and a 10-10 tie.

Addison provides the game’s largest offensive swing

Minnesota’s decisive offensive burst came with 4:11 left in the second quarter. Kyler Murray found Jordan Addison for a 41-yard touchdown, capping a four-play, 73-yard drive that took only 1:15 and restored a 17-10 Vikings lead.

That completion was the game’s largest win-probability swing from scrimmage. Minnesota went from a 57.6% chance to win before the touchdown to 72.9% afterward, a margin it would need when the offenses stalled for much of the second half.

Neither side generated a consistently efficient attack. Minnesota posted minus-0.28 EPA per play and Tampa Bay minus-0.32; EPA per play measures the expected points a play adds. Each offense had a 31% success rate, the share of plays that produce positive EPA, and the Vikings’ 246 passing-and-rushing yards trailed Tampa Bay’s 274.

The ground games were the less damaging route for both teams, with Minnesota at minus-0.09 rushing EPA per play and Tampa Bay at minus-0.12. Aaron Jones Sr. carried 17 times for 58 yards, while Bucky Irving had 15 carries for 46 yards, as the passing attacks absorbed most of the lost value.

Minnesota wins the final possession battle

Tampa Bay had opportunities to turn the game after Murray’s third-quarter interception gave it the ball at Minnesota’s 22. The Buccaneers managed only two yards on four plays, settling for a 38-yard field goal that cut the deficit to 17-13.

A Mayfield completion to Emeka Egbuka, followed by a 15-yard unnecessary-roughness penalty, gave Tampa Bay another fourth-quarter jolt. Its win probability rose from 25.5% to 39.5% at 10:49, and the ensuing nine-play, 30-yard drive ended with a 54-yard field goal for MIN 17, TB 16.

Minnesota responded by controlling 5:46 with a 12-play possession, even though it gained only 17 yards. Reichard’s 56-yard field goal with 3:10 remaining made it 20-16, and Tampa Bay’s next four-play drive ended in an interception after gaining 10 yards.

Given possession at the opponent’s 41, Minnesota added the final layer of protection: five plays, 16 yards and Reichard’s 43-yard field goal at 0:33 for a 23-16 lead. Tampa Bay’s final possession also ended with an interception, preserving a Minnesota win probability that never fell below 49.3%.

Murray finished 15 of 29 for 168 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with Addison supplying five catches for 90 yards. Mayfield went 17 of 34 for 217 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but Tampa Bay absorbed six sacks; Eric Wilson led Minnesota with 10 tackles and two sacks.

The Vikings are 3-0 and host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 4. The Buccaneers are 0-3 and host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 4.