Knicks' offensive glass meets a Bucks team that loses the boards

The Bucks (1-9), losers of six straight, visit the Knicks (5-4) at 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday in a game that turns on New York's offensive rebounding against Milwaukee's weak defensive glass.

New York grabs 32.3% of its own misses, second in the league, while Milwaukee secures only 68.9% of opponents' misses, 27th. A Knicks offense that ranks 27th in effective field goal percentage can live off those putbacks.

The Bucks' defense gives up 118.8 points per 100 possessions, 28th in the league. It also forces turnovers at the lowest rate in the NBA, so New York's ball handlers should rarely give away possessions.

Milwaukee's offense leans on the three: 48.2% of its shots come from deep, third-highest in the league. It scores 105.9 points per 100 possessions, 25th, and faces a New York defense that ranks seventh.

Jalen Brunson drives the Knicks with 26.2 points and 5.6 assists a game. Karl-Anthony Towns pulls down 13.6 rebounds a game, the number that matters most against Milwaukee's soft glass.

Tyler Herro leads the Bucks with 21.4 points a game and is questionable. Myles Turner blocks 2.5 shots a game and is the main resistance New York's bigs will meet at the rim.

Josh Hart, who plays 31.6 minutes a game and leads the Knicks with two steals, is also questionable.

Milwaukee's losses have been lopsided: 136-111 to Cleveland and 117-97 to Boston, both at home. New York has won three straight, including a 135-105 rout of Chicago and a 109-97 win at Cleveland.

Sportsbooks' prices give the Knicks an 88% chance to win. Our projection, built from the players available, puts it at 87% with an 11.2-point margin.