Joe Burrow's status shadows Jaguars-Bengals clash

The quarterback variable

Joe Burrow's questionable status with a back injury hangs over Sunday's Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals game at Paycor Stadium. The Bengals have scored 26.7 points per game, 12th in the league, but their leader in passing yards has been central to that output: Burrow has 743 yards, six passing touchdowns and one interception in three games.

Jacksonville arrives at 2-1 atop the AFC South, while Cincinnati is 2-1 and second in the AFC North. The Jaguars have allowed a league-low 12 points per game, a major early-season test for a Bengals offense that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency.

Jacksonville's efficient attack

The sharpest statistical edge is Jacksonville's offense against Cincinnati's production allowed through the air. The Jaguars are sixth in pass-offense efficiency, while the Bengals allow 287 passing yards per game, 29th; Jacksonville's overall offense is fourth with 0.187 EPA per play and a 52.9% success rate.

EPA per play measures expected points added on each snap, while success rate is the share of plays that produce positive EPA. Trevor Lawrence has completed 54 of 81 attempts for 616 yards, seven passing touchdowns and two interceptions, and Parker Washington has 221 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in three games.

The Jaguars also sit fifth in rush-offense efficiency and run for 119.3 yards per game, 10th. Bhayshul Tuten has supplied 204 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 43 carries, but Cincinnati's run defense gives up 95.7 yards per game, ninth, and ranks 22nd in rush-defense efficiency.

Cincinnati's own passing game has a counterweight in Tee Higgins, who has 244 receiving yards on 14 catches in three games. Yet Jacksonville's defense is eighth in EPA allowed per play at -0.073, second against the run by efficiency, and has paired that with 2.7 takeaways per game, fifth in the league.

Pressure, availability and setting

The Bengals can affect Lawrence without relying on a high-volume running game; they average 91.3 rushing yards, 28th, while producing 3.7 sacks per game, fifth. Dexter Lawrence II has two sacks, and Jacksonville has allowed only 1.3 sacks per game, fifth, making the pocket a meaningful contest on both sides.

Burrow is questionable, and Cincinnati also lists defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Jonathan Allen as questionable. The Bengals have 10 players designated questionable, while wide receiver Colbie Young and safety Kyle Dugger are out. Jacksonville lists wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers as questionable, along with linebacker Foyesade Oluokun; its report contains 11 questionable players and eight inactive.

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET Sunday, October 4, at open-air Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH, with clear conditions, a forecast of 69 degrees, 2 mph wind from the N and a 1% chance of rain. Sportsbook prices with their margin removed give Cincinnati a 56.3% win chance and Jacksonville 43.7%.