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Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season.

Leaderboards

Our model: fitted on 2024–25 season, 2025–26 season, 2026–27 season; graded on 2025–26 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.48 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).

Teams

Teams
OffenseDefense
KC+0.12, 1st in the league55+0.20, 5th in the league−0.02, 3rd in the league−0.01, 20th in the league52+0.08, 18th in the league−0.16, 13th in the league
PHI+0.10, 2nd in the league54+0.21, 3rd in the league−0.01, 2nd in the league−0.04, 13th in the league49−0.05, 4th in the league−0.03, 31st in the league
BUF+0.07, 3rd in the league54+0.20, 4th in the league−0.12, 10th in the league−0.10, 4th in the league51−0.04, 6th in the league−0.20, 8th in the league
SF+0.05, 4th in the league51+0.22, 2nd in the league−0.13, 11th in the league−0.14, 1st in the league47−0.05, 5th in the league−0.29, 2nd in the league
JAX+0.04, 5th in the league54+0.17, 10th in the league−0.15, 15th in the league−0.04, 15th in the league51+0.08, 21st in the league−0.21, 6th in the league
DET+0.03, 6th in the league53+0.24, 1st in the league−0.24, 28th in the league+0.03, 29th in the league53+0.08, 20th in the league−0.04, 30th in the league
DAL+0.03, 7th in the league52+0.18, 7th in the league−0.13, 12th in the league−0.09, 5th in the league48−0.11, 1st in the league−0.06, 28th in the league
SEA+0.03, 8th in the league51+0.14, 11th in the league−0.15, 13th in the league+0.07, 31st in the league52+0.19, 31st in the league−0.07, 27th in the league
CIN+0.03, 9th in the league53+0.18, 9th in the league−0.22, 25th in the league−0.08, 6th in the league50−0.03, 7th in the league−0.14, 20th in the league
MIA+0.02, 10th in the league51+0.18, 8th in the league−0.24, 27th in the league−0.01, 22nd in the league52+0.07, 16th in the league−0.13, 21st in the league
LV+0.02, 11th in the league52+0.19, 6th in the league−0.23, 26th in the league+0.01, 25th in the league54+0.14, 25th in the league−0.16, 15th in the league
LAC+0.01, 12th in the league52+0.13, 12th in the league−0.20, 21st in the league−0.04, 14th in the league50+0.03, 10th in the league−0.13, 22nd in the league
NYG+0.01, 13th in the league50+0.02, 19th in the league+0.01, 1st in the league+0.03, 28th in the league52+0.11, 24th in the league−0.08, 26th in the league
ATL0.00, 14th in the league50+0.09, 13th in the league−0.07, 6th in the league+0.02, 26th in the league55+0.19, 30th in the league−0.18, 11th in the league
MIN−0.01, 15th in the league51+0.09, 14th in the league−0.19, 20th in the league+0.01, 24th in the league51+0.14, 26th in the league−0.17, 12th in the league
BAL−0.02, 16th in the league52+0.08, 16th in the league−0.12, 9th in the league−0.06, 8th in the league51+0.08, 17th in the league−0.29, 3rd in the league
CLE−0.02, 17th in the league510.00, 22nd in the league−0.05, 5th in the league−0.01, 21st in the league51+0.11, 23rd in the league−0.14, 18th in the league
PIT−0.04, 18th in the league51+0.01, 21st in the league−0.11, 8th in the league−0.02, 17th in the league51+0.07, 15th in the league−0.13, 23rd in the league
GB−0.04, 19th in the league52+0.08, 15th in the league−0.20, 23rd in the league−0.04, 16th in the league52−0.02, 8th in the league−0.05, 29th in the league
CHI−0.05, 20th in the league49−0.06, 26th in the league−0.04, 4th in the league+0.09, 32nd in the league52+0.21, 32nd in the league−0.03, 32nd in the league
NO−0.06, 21st in the league52+0.04, 17th in the league−0.17, 18th in the league−0.05, 12th in the league50+0.04, 11th in the league−0.16, 14th in the league
WSH−0.06, 22nd in the league47+0.02, 20th in the league−0.15, 14th in the league−0.06, 11th in the league46+0.07, 14th in the league−0.21, 7th in the league
TB−0.07, 23rd in the league52+0.02, 18th in the league−0.27, 30th in the league−0.06, 9th in the league48+0.04, 12th in the league−0.20, 9th in the league
CAR−0.08, 24th in the league48−0.06, 27th in the league−0.11, 7th in the league−0.06, 7th in the league490.00, 9th in the league−0.14, 19th in the league
LAR−0.10, 25th in the league50−0.06, 25th in the league−0.16, 17th in the league+0.03, 30th in the league52+0.18, 29th in the league−0.16, 16th in the league
TEN−0.11, 26th in the league47−0.01, 23rd in the league−0.20, 22nd in the league0.00, 23rd in the league49+0.18, 28th in the league−0.33, 1st in the league
ARI−0.12, 27th in the league50−0.08, 28th in the league−0.18, 19th in the league−0.01, 19th in the league54+0.06, 13th in the league−0.12, 24th in the league
DEN−0.14, 28th in the league45−0.08, 29th in the league−0.22, 24th in the league−0.06, 10th in the league49+0.08, 19th in the league−0.26, 4th in the league
NYJ−0.14, 29th in the league46−0.14, 32nd in the league−0.15, 16th in the league−0.12, 3rd in the league47−0.07, 3rd in the league−0.19, 10th in the league
NE−0.15, 30th in the league47−0.05, 24th in the league−0.28, 31st in the league−0.13, 2nd in the league48−0.07, 2nd in the league−0.22, 5th in the league
HOU−0.15, 31st in the league48−0.09, 30th in the league−0.24, 29th in the league+0.02, 27th in the league52+0.14, 27th in the league−0.09, 25th in the league
IND−0.17, 32nd in the league48−0.10, 31st in the league−0.28, 32nd in the league−0.02, 18th in the league51+0.10, 22nd in the league−0.15, 17th in the league

Players

At least 309 dropbacks

Passing
#
1 Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL427+0.3663
2 Jimmy GaroppoloQB · LAR325+0.2761
3 Jared GoffQB · DET615+0.2460
4 Jalen HurtsQB · PHI475+0.2355
5 Josh AllenQB · BUF601+0.2260
6 Dak PrescottQB · DAL415+0.2161
7 Patrick MahomesQB · KC689+0.2059
8 Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX595+0.1960
9 Joe BurrowQB · CIN660+0.1959
10 Derek CarrQB · NO527+0.1956
11 Lamar JacksonQB · BAL356+0.1657
12 Geno SmithQB · NYJ563+0.1459
13 Justin HerbertQB · LAC725+0.1358
14 Marcus MariotaQB · WSH328+0.1156
15 Andy DaltonQB · PHI393+0.1159
16 Kenny PickettQB · CAR431+0.0955
17 Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI353+0.0858
18 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT572+0.0856
19 Kirk CousinsQB · LV697+0.0756
20 Daniel JonesQB · IND514+0.0652
21 Tom BradyQB · TB772+0.0357
22 Ryan TannehillQB · TEN368+0.0354
23 Kyler MurrayQB · MIN3730.0054
24 Matt RyanQB · IND481−0.0155
25 Justin FieldsQB · KC334−0.0351
26 Russell WilsonQB · NYG554−0.0447
27 Davis MillsQB · HOU512−0.0553
28 Mac JonesQB · SF471−0.0651
29 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR327−0.0756
30 Baker MayfieldQB · TB371−0.0951