NFL player prop records

Name: NFL Passing TDs prop records 2025
Creator: Keel Stats
License: https://keelstats.com/terms

Each player's record against the line most sportsbooks closed on, game by game: how often he finished over it or under it, and by how much. A game he sat does not count; a push counts in neither rate. A record of what happened, not picks.

Sportsbook lines are shown as reference data. Keel Stats takes no bets and gives no picks. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible gaming

38 players with 6+ graded games in 2025 · 561 lines graded

Most often over: Passing TDs

The players who finished over their Passing TDs line most often, 2025
#	Player	O–U–P	Over	vs line	Avg line
1	Jacoby BrissettARI	9–2	82%	+0.4	1.5
2	Shedeur SandersCLE	5–2	71%	+0.4	0.6
3	Jaxson DartNYG	8–4	67%	+0.2	1.1
4	Matthew StaffordLAR	13–7	65%	+0.6	2.0
5	Brock PurdySF	7–4	64%	+0.5	1.5
6	Justin FieldsNYJ	5–3	63%	0.0	0.9
7	Drake MayeNE	13–8	62%	+0.3	1.5
8	Jared GoffDET	10–7	59%	+0.4	1.6
9	Caleb WilliamsCHI	11–8	58%	+0.2	1.4
10	Mac JonesSF	4–3	57%	−0.1	1.5

Most often under: Passing TDs

The players who finished under their Passing TDs line most often, 2025
#	Player	O–U–P	Under	vs line	Avg line
1	Michael Penix Jr.ATL	2–7	78%	−0.5	1.5
2	Jayden DanielsWSH	2–5	71%	−0.4	1.5
3	C.J. StroudHOU	5–11	69%	−0.2	1.5
4	Joe FlaccoCIN	3–6	67%	−0.1	1.5
5	Aaron RodgersPIT	6–11	65%	−0.1	1.5
6	Patrick MahomesKC	5–9	64%	−0.2	1.8
7	Kirk CousinsATL	3–5	63%	−0.3	1.5
8	Marcus MariotaWSH	3–5	63%	0.0	1.3
9	Bo NixDEN	7–11	61%	+0.1	1.5
10	Geno SmithLV	6–9	60%	+0.1	1.2

Every player

10 of 38 shown.

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The line is the one most sportsbooks closed on (exchanges left out), from our archive of the books' lines. Over and under are shares of the games that went either way. Listed from 6 graded games. Past results: they do not say what comes next.