Player ratings
Keel Impact is our all-in-one number: points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, split into offence and defence. It is regularised adjusted plus-minus over every lineup of the season, shrunk toward what his box score predicts rather than toward zero — the approach behind the public impact metrics, fitted on our own play by play. Garbage time is left out. Next to it, the classic ratings, all computed here from the same games. How it is computed
Which rating knows the most
Each rating from one season, the players who took the floor the next, weighted by their minutes: how well that predicts every game margin of the next season (correlation, higher is better). Averaged over 2020-21 → 2021-22, 2021-22 → 2022-23, 2022-23 → 2023-24, 2023-24 → 2024-25, 2024-25 → 2025-26, and 2025-26 → 2026-27; hover or use the arrow keys for each.
Table
| Rating | 2020-21 → 2021-22 | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 2025-26 → 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keel Impact | 0.385 · 64% | 0.353 · 63% | 0.430 · 66% | 0.447 · 68% | 0.411 · 65% | 0.431 · 64% |
| RAPM | 0.376 · 64% | 0.361 · 63% | 0.408 · 66% | 0.434 · 67% | 0.377 · 63% | 0.418 · 66% |
| Box prior | 0.363 · 64% | 0.333 · 62% | 0.427 · 67% | 0.420 · 66% | 0.440 · 68% | 0.384 · 69% |
| PER | 0.347 · 64% | 0.334 · 61% | 0.396 · 66% | 0.406 · 66% | 0.446 · 68% | 0.324 · 64% |
| On-court net | 0.355 · 63% | 0.304 · 61% | 0.379 · 65% | 0.412 · 66% | 0.345 · 63% | 0.427 · 66% |
| Game Score / 36 | 0.337 · 62% | 0.330 · 61% | 0.377 · 65% | 0.379 · 66% | 0.426 · 66% | 0.259 · 61% |
| On/off | 0.300 · 61% | 0.277 · 59% | 0.362 · 64% | 0.334 · 63% | 0.307 · 63% | 0.243 · 59% |
| Team net (no players) | 0.255 · 61% | 0.215 · 58% | 0.275 · 60% | 0.297 · 59% | 0.269 · 58% | 0.422 · 69% |
The honest read: the gaps at the top are within noise over two seasons (1,230 games each). Plain plus-minus and on/off trail the box-score ratings; Impact is the one that also splits offence from defence.
Where the numbers disagree
Impact against PER, in standard deviations, 1,000+ minutes.
Impact rates higher
Box score rates higher
| Rank | Player |
|---|
The top 100 players by Keel Impact. Filter or sort a column to load everyone.
Every player’s offensive and defensive Impact, box prior, RAPM and on/off — with Pro
Regular season. Ratings shrink small samples hard: a bench player's Impact stays near zero until the minutes say otherwise. RAPM penalty λ 2000, Impact λ 3000, chosen by cross-validation on held-out games.