Bucks open 2026-27 without Giannis, with Herro back

The Milwaukee Bucks, who went 32-50 last season, open 2026-27 on Wednesday, October 21, at the Washington Wizards with Tyler Herro back from a 33-game season and Giannis Antetokounmpo gone to Miami.

How much Herro gives them, and who covers the rest, decides a team that finished 11th in the East and missed the playoffs with a net rating of -6.2.

Milwaukee was 27-37 in the 64 games Ryan Rollins, A.J. Green and Myles Turner all played, the three it counts on most this season. It went 5-13 in the 18 games without one of them.

The Bucks also closed 10-20 over their last 30 games, so the margin for a missing piece was thin and the season ended on a slide.

Herro played 33 of 82 games last season. In 2024-25, his last full one, he averaged 23.9 points in 77 games, and our impact rating had him at 2.21. How he comes back is the open question.

Rollins is the steadiest piece around him, with 17.3 points and 5.6 assists in 74 games and an impact of 1.79. Kevin Porter Jr. rated 2.03 in 38 games, averaging 17.4 points and 7.4 assists. The Bucks need more of him.

Turner (11.9 points, -0.34) and Green (10.4 points, -0.19) rated just under average. The bigger holes sit lower in the rotation: Kyle Kuzma at -1.37, and Gary Trent Jr. at -4.24 across 21.2 minutes a night.

Antetokounmpo's departure sets the size of the job. He played 36 games at 28.9 minutes and rated 5.45 before going to the Miami Heat. Bobby Portis also went to Miami and Taurean Prince to the Detroit Pistons. Only 68% of last season's minutes return.

Four players came from Miami: Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware and Kasparas Jakučionis. Jaquez averaged 15.4 points and 4.7 assists in 75 games, and Ware 11.1 points and 9 rebounds in 22.2 minutes.

Caris LeVert, from the Pistons, and Kam Jones, from the Indiana Pacers, rated -1.68 and -3.51 with their old teams. Neither arrives with a number that settles a rotation spot.

Brayden Burries, the No. 10 pick out of Arizona, is expected to be in the rotation. Nate Ament, the No. 13 pick out of Tennessee, projects on the fringe and is day-to-day after a third straight absence with a left ankle sprain to end the preseason.

Jericho Sims, also day-to-day, was held out of Friday's preseason finale for undisclosed reasons. Both are listed to return Wednesday, October 21.

Our roster-strength ranking puts Milwaukee 29th of 30, and we project 29 wins with a net rating of -5.2. That view counts Herro at about 17.9 minutes a game and an impact of 0.57, the usual discount for a player back from a long absence. A return to his full level would be more than the projection holds.

The Bucks tip off at 7:00 PM ET in Washington.