Lillard and Morant, barely seen last year, swing Blazers' season

The Portland Trail Blazers, a 42-40 team last season, open 2026-27 with Damian Lillard, who played none of 82 games, and Ja Morant, who played 20 for Memphis, both back on the roster, and the season turns on them.

Portland finished 8th in the West with a net rating of -0.3 and lost its playoff series to the San Antonio Spurs, 4-1.

The record looks better with the main group on the floor. With Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan all playing, Portland went 35-27 in 62 games. In the 20 games when at least one was out, it went 7-13. It closed 18-12 over its last 30.

Lillard's last full season was 2024-25: 59 games, 24.9 points and 7 assists a night. Our impact rating, the points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, put him at 1.89.

Morant played 20 of 82 games last season for Memphis, averaging 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, and graded 0.14. In 2024-25 he played 50 games, scored 23.2 a night and graded 2.23. Which version arrives is the open question.

Our projection is cautious about both. It counts Lillard for 23.4 minutes a game at 1.5 and Morant for 9.5 minutes at 1.22, the usual discount for players back from long absences. A full return from either is more than that holds.

Avdija is the established engine. He averaged 24.2 points and 6.7 assists in 66 games and graded 1.88. Clingan, at center, averaged 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds and graded 1.93. Camara played all 82 games at 33.3 minutes a night and graded 0.98.

Jrue Holiday graded 2.38 in 53 games. Robert Williams III graded 3.24 in only 17.1 minutes a game, which suggests he gave Portland more than his playing time showed.

Micah Potter comes from the Indiana Pacers after 9.7 points and 5 rebounds in 47 games, Branden Carlson from the Oklahoma City Thunder and John Tonje from the Boston Celtics.

Jerami Grant and Kris Murray both went to the Memphis Grizzlies, and with them 29.8 and 23.5 minutes a game. Matisse Thybulle, now with the Los Angeles Lakers, graded 3.33 in 30 games. In all, 71% of last season's minutes are back.

Shaedon Sharpe, who scored 20.8 points a game in 50 games last season, is out and not expected back before about March. Holiday and Potter are day-to-day, and both are expected to play the opener.

Our numbers rank Portland's roster 15th among 30 teams and project 42 wins and a net rating of 0.5. That points to another season near .500, with the upside in how much of Lillard and Morant the projection has not counted.

Portland opens at home against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, October 21, at 10:00 PM ET.