Warriors bring back Curry, Butler and Horford after 37-45 year

Golden State, 37-45 last season, opens Wednesday, October 21, at the Los Angeles Lakers (10:00 PM ET) with Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford back, and how much they play decides the season.

The Warriors finished 10th in the West last season, missed the playoffs and posted a net rating of -0.6. They closed badly, going 9-21 over their last 30 games.

Health shaped the record. With Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green and Moses Moody, the three the team counts on most, all playing, Golden State went 24-25 in 49 games. In the 33 games when one sat, it went 13-20.

Curry played 43 of 82 games last season. In 2024-25, his last full season, he averaged 24.5 points in 70 games and graded at 4.2 on our impact rating. The offense is built to return to that level.

Butler played 38 games. In 2024-25 he averaged 17.5 points in 55 games and graded at 3.2. He is out until about January: the report says he had surgery after the Jan. 19 injury, has progressed to individual court work and still has several rehabilitation milestones to clear. His expected return is Saturday, January 2.

Horford played 45 games last season. In 2024-25 he averaged 6.2 rebounds in 60 games and graded at 3.19, a mark that came with 27.7 minutes a game. How many minutes he can hold at his age is the open question.

The players who stayed on the floor grade closer to average. Podziemski played all 82 games and scored 13.8 points a night, but graded at 0.05. Green, at 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists, graded at -1.02, below an average player.

Moody graded at 1.76 in 60 games. He is out for weeks, with a return expected Tuesday, December 1. Kristaps Porzingis, who joined from the Atlanta Hawks last season and averaged 16.7 points in 32 games, is also out for weeks, with a return expected Monday, November 9. The report says the team has no update on his timeline.

The headline arrival is a rookie. Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick out of Michigan, is projected to start at forward. Brandon Williams comes from the Dallas Mavericks after averaging 13 points and 3.9 assists in 66 games, though he graded at -0.46. Graham Ike, undrafted out of Gonzaga, is on a two-way contract.

Quinten Post and Pat Spencer left for the Memphis Grizzlies and the Phoenix Suns. Each played 66 or 67 games at roughly 17 or 18 minutes, and both graded below average. Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield and Trayce Jackson-Davis left during last season, so they belong to last year's moves. In all, 77% of last season's minutes return.

Our numbers rank the Warriors' roster 19th of 30 and project 38 wins and a net rating of -1.5, as a view, not a promise. They count Curry for 22.8 minutes a game and Butler for 18.9, both below their last healthy levels, the usual discount for players back from long absences. A full return from either would be more than the projection holds.