Magic's season turns on Franz Wagner's return and a healthy core

Franz Wagner, questionable after playing 34 of 82 games last season, is the question for the Magic, who return 90% of their minutes from a 45-37 team and open Wednesday against the Hawks.

Orlando took the East's 8th seed last season and posted a net rating of 0.6. It lost its playoff series to the Detroit Pistons 4-3.

The record hides a lot of missing parts. With Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. all playing, Orlando went 36-33 over 69 games. In the 13 games one of them missed, it went 9-4. The team finished 17-13 over its last 30.

Wagner averaged 20.6 points in 30 minutes over his 34 games. His last full season, 2024-25, was better: 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 60 games, with an impact rating of 3.74. A healthy Wagner puts that scorer back beside Banchero and Bane.

He is day-to-day, and the report lists him as questionable for Wednesday's opener. How he comes back is the open question.

Jalen Suggs carries the highest impact rating of the core players, 3.92, with 13.8 points and 5.5 assists in 57 games. He missed 25 games, so a full year from him is minutes the rotation did not have.

Bane played all 82 games, scored 20.1 points a night and rated 2.04. Carter gave 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds at 1.79.

Banchero scored 22.2 points with 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 72 games, but rated 0.32. His box score ran ahead of what the lineups did with him on the floor.

Anthony Black, at 15.0 points in 64 games, is day-to-day after missing the whole preseason. Goga Bitadze rated 1.4 in 15.2 minutes a game, a bench center who graded well.

The one arrival is Nikola Vucevic, a center who split last season between the Chicago Bulls and the Boston Celtics. He averaged 15.1 points and 8.4 rebounds in 64 games and rated 0.7.

The departures took little with them. Moritz Wagner went to the Brooklyn Nets and Jett Howard to the Dallas Mavericks, and both graded below average, at -1.64 and -2.36. Orlando Robinson played four games. Tyus Jones, a February move last season, had rated -2.49 in 15.7 minutes.

The only rookie is Izaiyah Nelson, the 51st pick out of South Florida, on a two-way contract. He is out after left ankle surgery this summer and is expected back Sunday, November 1.

Elsewhere on the report, Jonathan Isaac is day-to-day after a limited camp and no preseason games, and Jase Richardson is day-to-day with back soreness. Noah Penda is out with a hamstring tear until about Wednesday, November 18.

Our numbers rank the roster 11th of 30 and project 45 wins and a net rating of 1.8, a view and not a promise. They count Wagner at 18.7 minutes a game and an impact rating of 2.53, with the usual discount for a long absence. A return to his full level would be more than the projection holds.

Orlando opens Wednesday, October 21, at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 7:00 PM ET.