Giants’ takeaway defense tests depleted Commanders

The matchup

The New York Giants arrive atop the NFC East at 3-1, while the Washington Commanders are 1-3 and trying to stabilize an offense missing key pieces. Sunday, October 11, turns on whether New York’s opportunistic defense can keep Washington from leaning on its ground game at Northwest Stadium.

The Giants have won three of four, most recently beating the Arizona Cardinals 36-24. Washington comes off a 30-13 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts, a result that sharpened the concern around a defense allowing 30.5 points per game, 30th in the league.

Rain is expected with a 92% chance of precipitation and an east wind at 15 mph. That weather puts a premium on ball security, field position and a running game that can stay on schedule.

Where New York can press

New York’s defense has created 2.8 takeaways per game, third in the NFL, against a Washington offense that has committed only 0.5 turnovers per game, seventh fewest. The Giants are eighth in points allowed at 19.8 per game, and their pass defense ranks seventh in yards allowed.

EPA measures expected points added on each play, while success rate is the share of plays that produce positive EPA. The Giants rank 10th defensively in EPA per play allowed at -0.012, a sturdy profile against a Commanders offense that is 23rd in offensive EPA per play at -0.044.

Washington’s clearest path is Jacory Croskey-Merritt, whose 157 rushing yards lead the club. The Commanders are ninth with 124 rushing yards per game, while the Giants allow 109 rushing yards per game, 16th in the league; Cam Skattebo gives New York a counter with 235 yards on 68 carries.

Absences shape the afternoon

Washington will be without quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has thrown four touchdown passes without an interception in his two starts, and receiver Stefon Diggs, whose three receiving touchdowns lead the team. Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring injury, leaving the Commanders without their passing-yardage leader and their receiving-yardage leader if he cannot go.

The Giants are without defensive end Chauncey Golston and safety Jason Pinnock, while cornerback DJ James is questionable. Abdul Carter has one sack, and New York’s league-low 0.8 sacks per game make its takeaway production especially important against a Washington front that has allowed only 1.3 sacks per game, fourth fewest.

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. Sportsbooks’ prices give Washington a 63% chance to win.