Bears' ground game tests Packers' soft front

A division game on the ground

The Chicago Bears arrive at 3-1 with the NFL's most productive rushing attack, while the 2-2 Green Bay Packers are trying to solve the league's weakest ground game. Their Week 5 meeting at Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 11, turns on whether Chicago can keep imposing its run game without its leading rusher and whether Green Bay can shift the game through the air.

Chicago scores 28 points per game, eighth in the league, and its defense allows 16.3, fourth. Green Bay has scored 18.3 points per game, 28th, while allowing 26.3; that gap gives its passing offense little room for empty possessions.

Run lanes and passing windows

The Bears average 196.3 rushing yards per game, first in the NFL, against a Packers defense allowing 139.3 on the ground, 28th. Chicago is second in rushing efficiency, and its 0.094 offensive EPA per play ranks eighth overall; EPA measures the expected points a play adds. The Bears have produced positive EPA on 50.7% of their snaps, a success rate that shows how consistently the offense stays ahead of schedule.

Kyle Monangai is out with a toe injury after leading Chicago with 324 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury after throwing for 407 yards in his two starts, making Rome Odunze's 233 receiving yards another important outlet against a Green Bay pass defense that is fourth in yards allowed.

Green Bay will lean on Jordan Love, who has 1,041 passing yards and eight touchdown passes in four starts. Christian Watson has caught 20 passes for 331 yards and four touchdowns, but Chicago brings the NFL's third-ranked overall defense and has allowed only 194 passing yards per game, third. The Bears' defense has permitted -0.083 EPA per play, third in the league, meaning opponents have generally lost expected points on each snap.

Availability could redirect the game

The Packers' run game averages 58 yards per game, last in the NFL, and it will be without Josh Jacobs and Chris Brooks, both out. Guards and centers also matter in that equation: Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are doubtful, while Jager Burton is questionable. Green Bay's defense still has a potential disruption point with 2.5 takeaways per game, fourth, against a Bears offense that has turned the ball over 1.3 times per game.

Chicago beat the New York Jets 23-12 last week, while Green Bay comes off a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay. The Bears have three players out, including Monangai, and two more questionable; the Packers have two out, two doubtful and three questionable. At Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, sportsbooks' prices give Chicago a 53% chance to win.