Giannis Antetokounmpo makes Miami a two-star team, and a thinner one

The Miami Heat landed the biggest name of the summer. Giannis Antetokounmpo arrives from the Milwaukee Bucks, and next to Bam Adebayo he gives Miami two players who graded far above average. The catch is the middle of the roster: Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware and Kasparas Jakučionis all ended up in Milwaukee, and Norman Powell left for Chicago. The question for 2026-27 is whether two stars can carry a roster that turned over underneath them.

Last season was frustrating in a very Miami way. The Heat went 43-39, outscored their opponents by 2.2 points per 100 possessions and still finished 10th in the East, outside the playoffs. A team that was good on margin and ordinary in the standings is exactly the kind that tempts a front office to swing big, and Miami swung.

Who was actually on the floor for Miami? Andrew Wiggins did not play in 14 of the 82 games, Davion Mitchell in 12. In the 49 games with Bam Adebayo, Wiggins and Davion Mitchell all playing, the Heat were 23-26; in the 33 games when one of them was out, 20-13. Miami finished 43-39.

A lot walked out the door

Jaquez played 75 games at 28.3 minutes a night and graded above average (0.94). Ware gave Miami 77 games and 22.2 minutes (0.36), Herro 31.2 minutes a night, though in only 33 games (0.51), and Jakučionis 17.8 minutes over 53 games (0.38). Powell, now with the Chicago Bulls, played 58 games at 29.6 minutes (0.8). None of them was a star, but all five were on the right side of average, and only 62% of last season's minutes come back.

Antetokounmpo is the reason none of that hurts as much as it should. He scored 27.6 points with 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists in 28.9 minutes for Milwaukee, and our impact rating, the points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, put him at 5.45, the best number on this roster. The catch is the games column: he played only 36.

The rest of the newcomers are role players. Tim Hardaway Jr. comes from the Denver Nuggets after 80 games and 13.5 points in 26.6 minutes, with a solid 0.85. Bobby Portis follows Antetokounmpo from Milwaukee with 13.7 points and 6.4 rebounds and graded close to average (-0.24). Klay Thompson, from the Dallas Mavericks, and Bez Mbeng, from the Utah Jazz, bring less; more on them below. Three rookies, Ryan Conwell, Tre Donaldson and J'Vonne Hadley, and Lester Quinones, back after a season away (12 games in 2024-25), fill out the depth.

Two stars, one frontcourt

Adebayo was the constant last season: 73 games, 32.4 minutes, 20.1 points, 10 rebounds and 3.2 assists a night, with a rating of 4.12. He was already good enough to build around. Now he does not have to do it alone.

How Miami fits the two together decides the season. Both are big men, Antetokounmpo a forward and Adebayo a center who can play forward, so the shooting around them could matter more than usual. If the minutes they share look anything like their individual numbers, Miami's ceiling rises fast. If they get in each other's way, the Heat will have spent their depth on a fit that does not work.

The quiet one: Davion Mitchell

The best number after the two stars belongs to a guard who barely scores. Davion Mitchell put up 9.3 points but 6.5 assists in 28.5 minutes over 70 games, and his rating of 2.35 says Miami was clearly better with him on the floor. With Herro and Powell gone, more of the ball should end up in his hands.

Pelle Larsson is the other one worth watching. He also played 70 games, scored 11.4 points in 26.4 minutes and graded above average (0.86). Simone Fontecchio (0.65 in 16.8 minutes) helped too. Neither is flashy, but both could see bigger roles.

The worries

The weak spots are on the wings and in the backcourt. Andrew Wiggins played more minutes than any returning player except Adebayo, 30.4 a night over 68 games, and scored 15.4 points, yet graded below average (-0.48). Thompson scored 11.7 points in 21.7 minutes for Dallas with a -1.11, and Mbeng, who played 32.9 minutes a night in 15 games for Utah, came in at -1.35. Those are the players most likely to inherit the minutes Herro, Jaquez and Powell used to take.

Health is the other question. Antetokounmpo's 36 games are the biggest risk on the roster. Dru Smith, a useful backup with 5.6 points and 2.6 assists in 16.3 minutes (0.43), and Myron Gardner are both listed as questionable on the injury report, which thins out a backcourt that already lost plenty.

Bottom line

Our roster model ranks Miami 9th of 30 and projects about 45 wins, a step up from last season's 43-39. The number rests on what these players did last year, not on what they might do next. If Antetokounmpo plays far more than 36 games and Mitchell takes on a bigger role, the Heat can beat it. If Wiggins, Thompson and Mbeng play like their numbers and the stars miss time, they will not.

The first look comes on Wednesday, October 21, at 7:30 PM ET, at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves.