Thunder's season turns on Jalen Williams's return

The Oklahoma City Thunder, 64-18 last season, open Tuesday, October 20, at 9:30 PM ET on the road against the San Antonio Spurs, who eliminated them in the playoffs, with Jalen Williams's return the swing factor.

Oklahoma City took the No. 1 seed in the West and posted a net rating of 10.9. Its playoff run lasted 15 games and ended against the Spurs, who won the series four games to three.

The record held through absences. Isaiah Hartenstein missed 35 games, Alex Caruso 26 and Ajay Mitchell 25. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren all playing, the Thunder went 47-11 in 58 games, and they finished 24-6 over their last 30.

Williams played 33 of 82 games last season. His last full year, 2024-25, brought 70 games and averages of 21.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Our outlook counts him for 18.6 minutes a game, well under the 32.5 he played then, and an impact rating of 2.08.

That is the usual discount for a long absence. A return to his full level would be more than our projection holds.

Gilgeous-Alexander is the base: 31.1 points and 6.6 assists in 68 games, with an impact rating of 8.53, the highest on the roster. Holmgren added 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in 69 games and graded 6.02. Hartenstein, Mitchell and Caruso each graded above 3.0.

Three rotation players left this summer, and Isaiah Joe is the one that costs something: he graded 2.56 in 21.2 minutes a game before going to the Detroit Pistons. Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins went to the Atlanta Hawks and graded below average, at -1.31 and -0.62.

With 71% of last season's minutes back and no arrivals, the roster is built on continuity. Ousmane Dieng and Chris Youngblood left in February, last season's moves.

Aday Mara, the No. 12 pick out of Michigan, and Bennett Stirtz, the No. 16 pick out of Iowa, are projected as fringe players. Thomas Sorber, the No. 15 pick of 2025 out of Georgetown, has not played yet.

Holmgren (bruised quad) and Jaylin Williams (heel issue) missed the whole preseason. Both are day-to-day, as are Wallace, Nikola Topic (back injury) and Sorber, who had arthroscopic knee surgery July 1. Tuesday's opener is the listed return for all of them.

Otega Oweh, the No. 41 pick out of Kentucky, is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles tendon.

Our view ranks the roster 1st among 30 teams and projects 57 wins and a net rating of 7, below last season's 64 wins and 10.9. Williams at full strength would add to that projection.