The Spurs keep almost everything, and that makes them the team to beat

The San Antonio Spurs did the rarest thing in the NBA this summer: almost nothing. Coming off a trip to the Finals, they bring back 94% of last season's minutes, add Tobias Harris from the Detroit Pistons and hand the keys back to Victor Wembanyama. The question for 2026-27 is not whether this team is good. It is whether a group that came within a series of a title can finish the job.

Last season was about as good as it gets without a parade. San Antonio went 62-20, finished 2nd in the West and outscored opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions, the profile of a genuine heavyweight. The run lasted 23 playoff games and ended in the Finals, where the New York Knicks took the series four games to one.

San Antonio's lineup rarely stood still. Victor Wembanyama was out for 18 of the team's 82 games, Devin Vassell for 15, Stephon Castle for 14 and Dylan Harper for 13. With Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell all playing, the Spurs went 45-12 in 57 games; in the other 25, with one of the three out, they went 17-8.

Barely a change

The summer's moves fit in a paragraph. Harris is the one newcomer who played big minutes last season: 13.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in 27.8 minutes over 63 games for Detroit, and he graded comfortably above average (1.66). On a team this deep he does not need to start to matter. Taelon Peter, from the Indiana Pacers, graded well below average (-2.49) in 12.9 minutes and is depth, not a plan.

The exits were small. Jeremy Sochan, now with the Portland Trail Blazers, played 12.8 minutes a night in 28 games and graded -1.85. Kelly Olynyk (8.8 minutes), Lindy Waters III (7.1), Mason Plumlee and Bismack Biyombo were fringe pieces. San Antonio lost nothing it leaned on and kept everything it did.

Wembanyama, and then some

Wembanyama is the reason this works. He put up 25 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 29.2 minutes over 64 games, and our impact rating, the points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, had him at 7.76. Nobody else on the roster comes close, and he did it without heavy minutes.

What makes the Spurs scary is that the second-best number belongs to a role player. Julian Champagnie played all 82 games at 27.6 minutes, scored 11.1 points with 5.8 rebounds and graded 3.82. Devin Vassell was nearly as good (3.41), with 13.9 points in 30.5 minutes. Neither needs the ball, and both fit neatly around Wembanyama.

The guards carry the box score. De'Aaron Fox averaged 18.6 points and 6.2 assists in 31 minutes with a 2.47, and Stephon Castle added 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 30 minutes with a 1.33. Keldon Johnson played every game too, scoring 13.2 points in 23.3 minutes with a 1.14.

The one to watch

The most interesting number belongs to Dylan Harper. In 22.6 minutes a night over 69 games he scored 11.8 points with 3.9 assists, and his rating of 2.66 was better than both Fox's and Castle's. A guard who grades that well off the bench is asking for more minutes.

How San Antonio finds them is the season's best puzzle. Fox, Castle and Harper all deserve the ball, and Harris adds another forward to a rotation already full of them. Too many good players is a nice problem to have, but it is still a problem someone has to solve.

The worries

There are not many. Nobody in the core graded below average last season. The lowest was Harrison Barnes, at 0.64 in 25.8 minutes, still on the right side of the line with 9.9 points a night.

The real risk is concentration. So much of San Antonio's edge runs through Wembanyama that the games he misses matter more than anything else on this list. He played 64 last season, and the Spurs need at least that many again.

Behind the core, the depth has few proven numbers. Malik Williams is back after last playing in 2023-24, when he graded -1.98 in 7 games. The three rookies, R.J. Davis, Jayden Quaintance and Tarris Reed Jr., are unknowns, and Quaintance is listed as out on the injury report, with David Jones listed as questionable.

Bottom line

Our roster model ranks San Antonio 1st of 30 and projects about 56 wins. That is fewer than last season's 62, but a season like that is hard to repeat, and the ranking is what counts: with 94% of the minutes back and Wembanyama in the middle, this is the team everyone else has to get past. If Harper takes another step, the Spurs can beat the projection. If Wembanyama misses real time, they will not.

The first look comes at home on Tuesday, October 20, at 9:30 PM ET, against the Oklahoma City Thunder.