Nuggets' No. 1 offense faces Thunder's No. 1 defense in OKC

The Denver Nuggets (54-28), last season's top offense, visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18), last season's top defense, at 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, October 22, in a game that turns on which unit gives ground. Records and ratings are from last season, with this season's rosters.

Denver scored 120.3 points per 100 possessions and shot 57.7% effective from the field, first in the league in both. Oklahoma City allowed 105.8 per 100, the lowest mark in the NBA, and held opponents to 51.9% effective shooting, second best. The Thunder's side looks harder to move.

The other end tilts the same way. Denver allowed 115.3 points per 100 possessions, 21st in the league, and forced turnovers on only 10% of opponent possessions, the lowest rate in the NBA. The Thunder turned the ball over on 10.8% of theirs, second best, so their offense (116.8, sixth) rarely gives away what Denver's defense cannot take.

Nikola Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists in 65 games for Denver. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31.1 a night on 55.3% shooting for the Thunder, and Chet Holmgren blocked 1.9 shots a game.

Denver lists Spencer Jones, who played 22.5 minutes a game, as questionable. Julian Strawther is out for the Nuggets.

The Thunder are without three players. Center Thomas Sorber, who played 20 minutes a game, and guard Nikola Topic are expected back Monday, October 26. Guard Otega Oweh is also out.

Neither team lives on second chances. The Thunder rebounded 22.3% of their misses, 28th in the league, and Denver was 25th at 23.6%, so half-court possessions should decide the night.

Sportsbooks' prices give the Thunder a 74% chance to win. Keel's projection, built from the players available, puts it at 82%.