Thunder's second-ranked defense meets Mavericks' hot shooting

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0) and the NBA's second-best defense visit the Dallas Mavericks (2-2) and their fifth-ranked shooting on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:30 PM ET, with turnovers deciding the matchup.

The Thunder allow 99 points per 100 possessions, and only two teams force more turnovers than their 15.9 per 100 possessions. Dallas turns it over at a 15.3 percentage, 27th in the league, so those steals can shorten its possessions.

The Mavericks answer with the shot. Their effective field goal percentage of 56.6 is fifth in the league, as is their true shooting at 59. Oklahoma City is 23rd in effective field goal percentage at 50.7, so its offense leans on the defense holding.

Cooper Flagg leads Dallas with 25 points, 6.3 assists and 3.7 steals a game, which puts him at the center of any turnover fight. P.J. Washington adds 7.5 rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores 27.3 points a game for Oklahoma City on 47.8% shooting.

The Thunder are thin. Chet Holmgren, who blocks three shots a game, is out, as is Cason Wallace, who averages 2.3 steals. Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also out, and Ajay Mitchell is questionable.

Dallas has its own report. Kyrie Irving, Naji Marshall and Caleb Martin are questionable, Santi Aldama is doubtful and Dereck Lively II is out.

Oklahoma City has won four straight, including a 96-84 win over Denver. Dallas split its four games, losing 128-110 at Houston and 122-106 at home to San Antonio and winning 113-109 at Miami.

Sportsbook prices give Oklahoma City a 66% chance to win. Keel's projection, built from the players available, makes the Thunder 71% favorites by 6.8 points.