Timberwolves visit Magic with a shooting edge Friday

The Timberwolves (49-33) visit the Magic (45-37) on Friday, October 23, at 7:00 PM ET, with the game turning on Minnesota's shooting against Orlando's free-throw rate. Both records are from last season.

Minnesota's effective field-goal percentage of 55.9 ranked seventh in the league last season, and its net rating ranked 10th. Orlando's 53.1 ranked 25th, and its three-point rate of 38.6 was 24th, so the Magic leaned on other routes.

The main one is the foul line. Orlando's free-throw rate of 0.311 was second in the league, while Minnesota's opponents reached the line at a rate of 0.282, 25th. The Timberwolves also held opponents to a 52.9 effective field-goal percentage, fifth-best, which leaves the Magic few easy looks elsewhere.

The glass adds a second pairing. Orlando grabbed 75.6 percent of available defensive rebounds, fifth in the league, and Minnesota's 73.7 ranked 20th. That gives the Timberwolves fewer second chances than their shooting suggests.

Anthony Edwards averaged 28.8 points in 61 games last season, and Rudy Gobert added 11.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a night. For Orlando, Paolo Banchero scored 22.2 points a game, and Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 1.8 steals.

Orlando has four players out: Anthony Black (29 minutes a game last season), Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson. Black and Isaac are listed to return Sunday, October 25. Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo, who is out and listed to return Friday, April 2.

Minnesota opened the season with a 131-106 win at Miami. Orlando lost its opener at home to Atlanta, 132-125.

Sportsbook prices give Minnesota a 54% chance to win. Keel's projection, built from the players available, gives Orlando a 54% chance.