Mavericks' trips to the line meet a Pacers defense that fouls

The Dallas Mavericks (26-56) visit the Indiana Pacers (19-63) at 7:00 PM ET on Friday, October 23, in a game that turns on Dallas's free throws against a Pacers defense that fouls.

Records and ranks are from last season, with this season's rosters. The Mavericks had the sixth-highest free-throw rate in the league at 0.287, and Indiana's defense ranked 24th in rate allowed at 0.282.

Cooper Flagg shot 82.7% at the line, so fouls on him cost the Pacers points.

The Pacers need the opposite fix. Their offensive rating of 109.0 was 28th, just behind Dallas's 109.2 in 27th, and their offensive rebound rate of 21.7% ranked 29th. Second shots were rare for them.

Pace adds a wrinkle. Dallas played the fourth-fastest in the league at 103.6 possessions, while Indiana's defense gave up a 116.7 rating, 25th. Quick shots against that defense favor the Mavericks.

Flagg averaged 21 points and 4.5 assists in 70 games, and P.J. Washington added 7 rebounds a night. For Indiana, Pascal Siakam scored 24 a game, Andrew Nembhard handed out 7.7 assists and Ivica Zubac pulled down 10.6 rebounds.

The Mavericks are thin. Santi Aldama (26.8 minutes a game) and Dereck Lively II (21.2) are out, along with Caleb Martin and Tarik Biberovic. Jett Howard is doubtful.

For the Pacers, Aaron Nesmith (28.8 minutes a game) and Ben Sheppard are questionable. T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy are out, and Braden Smith is doubtful.

Each team has played once this season. Indiana won 123-120 at New Orleans, and Dallas lost 128-110 at Houston.

Sportsbooks' prices give Indiana a 66% chance to win. Keel's projection, built from the players available, has the Pacers at 60.5%.