Bucks' top-three shooting meets a Pacers defense that leaks

The Milwaukee Bucks (32-50 last season) host the Indiana Pacers (19-63) at 8:00 PM ET on Monday, October 26, when the league's third-best shooting offense meets a defense that ranked 24th against opposing shooting.

Milwaukee posted a 56.5 effective field goal percentage, third in the league, and took threes at the fifth-highest rate. Indiana allowed 55.6, so clean looks from deep should come for the Bucks.

The Bucks' defense gave plenty back, allowing 117.4 points per 100 possessions, 27th. Indiana scored only 109.0 per 100, 28th. Whichever offense finds its shots first gets the edge.

Turnovers offer little relief. Milwaukee gave the ball away on 13.3% of its possessions, 28th, but Indiana forced them at only the 22nd-best rate.

Second chances will be scarce: the Pacers ranked 29th on the offensive glass, the Bucks 30th.

Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 points last season and made 91.7% of his free throws. Ryan Rollins gave Milwaukee 5.6 assists and 1.5 steals a night. For Indiana, Pascal Siakam scored 24 points a game and Andrew Nembhard handed out 7.7 assists. Both are healthy on the report.

Ivica Zubac, who averaged 10.6 rebounds last season, is day-to-day. Ben Sheppard is out until Tuesday, December 1, and Johnny Furphy until Saturday, January 2. The Bucks have no one on the report.

Early results favor neither side. Indiana beat Brooklyn 136-109 on the road and lost 121-105 to Dallas at home. Milwaukee fell 132-125 to Chicago at home and 128-116 at Washington.

Sportsbooks' prices give Indiana a 61% chance to win and Milwaukee 39%. Keel's projection, built from the players available, gives Milwaukee 54.5%.