Anthony Davis joins the Wizards, but the climb starts from the very bottom

The Washington Wizards spent the summer adding names that opponents actually plan for. Anthony Davis arrives from the Dallas Mavericks, Deandre Ayton from the Los Angeles Lakers, and Trae Young, who played just 15 games last season, is still here to run the offense. Next to Alexandre Sarr, that is real talent. The question for 2026-27 is whether a few proven players can drag the rest of the roster up, or whether they only make the losing less ugly.

And last season was ugly. Washington went 17-65, finished 15th and last in the East and was outscored by 11.5 points per 100 possessions, a gap no single trade closes. There is nowhere to go but up, but most of last season's minutes are coming back with the new names.

What changed

The one departure that really hurts is CJ McCollum. He played only 35 games in Washington before moving on to the Atlanta Hawks, but he gave the Wizards 30.9 minutes a night and a rating of 3.22, far above average and far above anything else on this roster. Our impact rating counts the points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one.

The rest of the exits matter less. Julian Reese, now with the New Orleans Pelicans, and Leaky Black, now with the Sacramento Kings, both graded below average (-1.82 and -1.22). Kadary Richmond, now with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Alondes Williams played only a handful of games.

Davis is the headline arrival. He played just 20 games for Dallas, but they were loud ones: 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds in 31.3 minutes, with a rating of 1.16, the best in this core. Ayton is the steadier piece, 72 games with 12.5 points and 8 rebounds in 27.2 minutes, graded close to average (-0.28). Tre Mann, from the Charlotte Hornets, is the one to worry about: 5.5 points in 12.6 minutes and a -3.95. Chris Livingston and Trevor Keels barely played.

Sarr, Davis and a point guard

Sarr is still the player all of this is built around. He averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 27.2 minutes over 48 games, and he graded above average (0.6) on a team where almost nobody did. Put him next to Davis, with Ayton behind them, and the frontcourt should stop being the problem. The catch: Sarr is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Young is the other half of the plan. In his 15 games he put up 17.9 points and 8 assists in 25.5 minutes, with a rating of 0.78. That is the playmaking this roster lacks: nobody else in the core averaged more than Carlton Carrington's 4.6 assists. He needs far more than 15 games, but a full season of Young feeding Davis and Sarr is the best version of this team on paper.

The quiet plus

The most useful returning player you may not have noticed is Justin Champagnie. He played 68 games at 20.3 minutes, averaged 8.8 points and 5.6 rebounds, and graded above average (0.47), one of the few Wizards who did. On a roster this short of positive players, he should play more.

Jamir Watkins was another small plus, 7.5 points and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes with a 0.22, but he is listed as out, and so is Tristan Vukcevic. That thins the rotation before it is even set. Three rookies, AJ Dybantsa, Steve Settle III and Felix Okpara, and Reece Beekman, back after a season away (2.7 points in 2024-25), fill out the depth.

The perimeter problem

Here is why our model is not impressed. Carlton Carrington played all 82 games at 27.7 minutes, with 10.7 points and 4.6 assists, and graded at -4.84, the lowest in this core. Will Riley was close behind at -4.19 in 22.1 minutes, with 10.3 points. Those are numbers that lose games, and both players were on the floor a lot.

The rest of the wings were below average too. Khris Middleton posted a -2.29 in 22.8 minutes, Tre Johnson scored 12.2 points with a -1.85, and Bilal Coulibaly scored 11.7 with a -1. KyShawn George came closest to break-even, with 14.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 29 minutes and a -0.69.

The hopeful reading: numbers like these can improve once better players arrive around them. But with 73% of last season's minutes coming back, the newcomers raise the ceiling, while the minutes those wings keep set the floor.

Bottom line

Our roster model ranks Washington 30th of 30 and projects about 23 wins. That is a real step up from 17, yet it still leaves the Wizards at the bottom, outscored by 7.8 points per 100 possessions on paper. If Davis and Young stay on the floor, Sarr is healthy and a couple of the wings climb toward average, they can beat it. If Davis and Young play 20 and 15 games again, they will not.

It all starts at home on Wednesday, October 21, at 7:00 PM ET, against the Milwaukee Bucks.