Tyrese Haliburton is back, and 19-63 should look like a detour

The Indiana Pacers did not spend the summer chasing a new identity. They spent it waiting for an old one. Tyrese Haliburton is back after a full season away, Pascal Siakam is still here, and most of the group that suffered through last winter returns with them. The question for 2026-27 is simple: how much of last season was the team, and how much was the empty chair at point guard?

Last season was rough by any measure. Indiana went 19-63, finished 14th in the East and was never close to the playoffs, getting outscored by 7.7 points per 100 possessions. That is a team that lost its engine, and the front office treated it that way: it kept the group together.

The biggest addition was already here

The most important new face is not new at all. In 2024-25, his last season on the floor, Haliburton averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists in 33.6 minutes over 73 games, and our impact rating, which counts the points a player adds per 100 possessions over an average one, had him at 3.77. Nobody on last season's roster came near that.

The rest of the summer was quiet. Kelly Oubre Jr. arrives from the Philadelphia 76ers after 50 games of 14.1 points and 5 rebounds in 31.5 minutes, graded right at average (0.05). He is a forward used to heavy minutes, and there are minutes to fill. Larry Nance Jr. comes from the Cleveland Cavaliers after a small role (12.8 minutes, -1.43), and three rookies, Braden Smith, Keba Keita and Rienk Mast, join the depth chart.

Going the other way, Bennedict Mathurin, now with the New Orleans Pelicans, played only 28 games but took 31.8 minutes a night in them and graded below average (-1.21). Micah Potter left for the Portland Trail Blazers and Isaiah Jackson for the LA Clippers, two useful reserves at 0.57 and 0.8. In all, 72% of last season's minutes return, and that is before you count Haliburton.

Siakam finally gets help

Siakam carried everything last season. He averaged 24 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 33.2 minutes over 62 games, and his rating of 2.11 was the best on the roster. With Haliburton back, he should not have to create every shot himself, and the Pacers should get a sharper version of the same player.

Andrew Nembhard is the other half of the story. He ran the offense in Haliburton's place, with 16.9 points and 7.7 assists in 31.3 minutes, and graded close to average (-0.24). The interesting part is what he becomes next to Haliburton instead of in place of him: a second ball handler who no longer has to be the first one.

The bench did its job

The best surprise last season came off the bench. T.J. McConnell played just 17.2 minutes a night, with 9.4 points and 5.1 assists, and graded well above average at 1.28. Obi Toppin did even better in a shorter run, 1.32 over 24 games with 11.6 points in 17.7 minutes.

Then there is Jay Huff, the only Pacer to play all 82 games. He gave Indiana 9.5 points in 21 minutes a night and a positive rating (0.72). On a 19-63 team, that is a lot of reserves who held their own. If Toppin can stay on the floor for a full season, this bench could turn into a real strength.

The worries

The trouble spots are in big minutes. Jarace Walker played 76 games at 25.7 minutes, with 11.6 points and 5.1 rebounds, but his rating of -4.29 was the lowest in the core by a distance. Ben Sheppard (-1.88 in 21.4 minutes) was below average as well. Both are back, and how much they play may say as much about this season as anything Haliburton does.

Center is a question too. Ivica Zubac put up big numbers, 14.1 points and 10.6 rebounds a night, yet graded below average (-0.7) in 30.2 minutes over 48 games. Nance is listed as questionable on the injury report, and Johnny Furphy is out. With Jackson and Potter gone, Huff may end up carrying more of the frontcourt than anyone planned.

And there is the obvious one: Haliburton has not played since 2024-25. His last season was excellent, but a full year away is a long time, and the first weeks may not look like the player who left.

Bottom line

Our roster model ranks Indiana 26th of 30 and projects about 31 wins, a big step up from last season and still a losing record. To us the number looks cautious: the model works from last season's minutes, and Haliburton had none. If he looks like the 2024-25 version and the bench holds up, Indiana can beat it comfortably. If Walker and Zubac grade like last season and Haliburton needs time, about 31 wins is fair.

It starts on Wednesday, October 21, at 8:00 PM ET, in New Orleans against the Pelicans, where Mathurin will be waiting.