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Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season.

Leaderboards

Our model: fitted on 2024–25 season, 2025–26 season, 2026–27 season; graded on 2025–26 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.48 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).

Teams

Teams
OffenseDefense
GB+0.13, 1st in the league53+0.24, 6th in the league−0.02, 3rd in the league+0.01, 23rd in the league48+0.06, 14th in the league−0.05, 31st in the league
BUF+0.12, 2nd in the league55+0.27, 2nd in the league−0.12, 9th in the league+0.02, 26th in the league51+0.14, 21st in the league−0.15, 23rd in the league
KC+0.11, 3rd in the league52+0.27, 3rd in the league−0.17, 12th in the league−0.02, 16th in the league51+0.02, 11th in the league−0.08, 29th in the league
HOU+0.10, 4th in the league53+0.23, 7th in the league−0.12, 8th in the league+0.13, 31st in the league53+0.24, 31st in the league0.00, 32nd in the league
MIN+0.07, 5th in the league52+0.26, 5th in the league−0.15, 11th in the league+0.06, 29th in the league53+0.22, 28th in the league−0.12, 27th in the league
TB+0.07, 6th in the league50+0.26, 4th in the league−0.28, 21st in the league−0.10, 9th in the league48−0.01, 7th in the league−0.28, 6th in the league
TEN+0.06, 7th in the league51+0.14, 13th in the league−0.01, 2nd in the league+0.02, 25th in the league53+0.16, 24th in the league−0.19, 18th in the league
SEA+0.06, 8th in the league51+0.09, 16th in the league+0.02, 1st in the league−0.01, 17th in the league49+0.08, 16th in the league−0.19, 19th in the league
NO+0.05, 9th in the league54+0.27, 1st in the league−0.18, 16th in the league−0.08, 11th in the league470.00, 9th in the league−0.23, 12th in the league
LV+0.02, 10th in the league49+0.11, 15th in the league−0.11, 6th in the league+0.08, 30th in the league50+0.24, 30th in the league−0.14, 25th in the league
ATL0.00, 11th in the league49+0.17, 8th in the league−0.28, 23rd in the league+0.04, 28th in the league51+0.23, 29th in the league−0.30, 5th in the league
IND0.00, 12th in the league48+0.14, 12th in the league−0.18, 15th in the league−0.12, 7th in the league50−0.06, 6th in the league−0.21, 13th in the league
NE−0.01, 13th in the league50+0.03, 22nd in the league−0.04, 4th in the league−0.04, 14th in the league53+0.11, 18th in the league−0.20, 16th in the league
BAL−0.01, 14th in the league49+0.08, 17th in the league−0.08, 5th in the league−0.27, 1st in the league44−0.14, 4th in the league−0.49, 1st in the league
DET−0.01, 15th in the league50+0.08, 18th in the league−0.17, 13th in the league+0.15, 32nd in the league55+0.41, 32nd in the league−0.15, 22nd in the league
CLE−0.02, 16th in the league49+0.14, 10th in the league−0.20, 17th in the league−0.04, 12th in the league49+0.01, 10th in the league−0.12, 26th in the league
PIT−0.03, 17th in the league47+0.14, 11th in the league−0.34, 28th in the league−0.18, 3rd in the league43−0.13, 5th in the league−0.24, 10th in the league
CAR−0.04, 18th in the league51+0.03, 23rd in the league−0.15, 10th in the league+0.02, 24th in the league50+0.21, 26th in the league−0.27, 8th in the league
ARI−0.05, 19th in the league49+0.15, 9th in the league−0.31, 27th in the league−0.10, 10th in the league480.00, 8th in the league−0.24, 11th in the league
LAC−0.07, 20th in the league49+0.12, 14th in the league−0.34, 29th in the league+0.01, 22nd in the league49+0.12, 20th in the league−0.14, 24th in the league
SF−0.07, 21st in the league47+0.04, 21st in the league−0.23, 18th in the league−0.12, 8th in the league47+0.07, 15th in the league−0.36, 3rd in the league
NYG−0.08, 22nd in the league45−0.06, 27th in the league−0.11, 7th in the league+0.02, 27th in the league51+0.16, 23rd in the league−0.16, 20th in the league
CHI−0.09, 23rd in the league49+0.01, 25th in the league−0.25, 19th in the league−0.04, 13th in the league48+0.11, 19th in the league−0.25, 9th in the league
DAL−0.09, 24th in the league48+0.01, 26th in the league−0.25, 20th in the league0.00, 20th in the league50+0.14, 22nd in the league−0.16, 21st in the league
MIA−0.10, 25th in the league49+0.02, 24th in the league−0.28, 22nd in the league−0.17, 5th in the league49−0.15, 2nd in the league−0.19, 17th in the league
LAR−0.11, 26th in the league52+0.07, 19th in the league−0.35, 30th in the league−0.25, 2nd in the league44−0.20, 1st in the league−0.33, 4th in the league
DEN−0.14, 27th in the league44+0.04, 20th in the league−0.37, 31st in the league0.00, 19th in the league49+0.03, 12th in the league−0.05, 30th in the league
WSH−0.16, 28th in the league46−0.09, 28th in the league−0.29, 24th in the league−0.17, 4th in the league46−0.14, 3rd in the league−0.21, 15th in the league
CIN−0.20, 29th in the league46−0.14, 29th in the league−0.29, 25th in the league0.00, 18th in the league50+0.08, 17th in the league−0.11, 28th in the league
NYJ−0.24, 30th in the league46−0.19, 30th in the league−0.31, 26th in the league+0.01, 21st in the league49+0.16, 25th in the league−0.21, 14th in the league
PHI−0.26, 31st in the league46−0.31, 32nd in the league−0.17, 14th in the league−0.16, 6th in the league48+0.03, 13th in the league−0.38, 2nd in the league
JAX−0.29, 32nd in the league47−0.21, 31st in the league−0.42, 32nd in the league−0.03, 15th in the league50+0.21, 27th in the league−0.28, 7th in the league

Players

At least 236 dropbacks

Passing
#
1 Drew BreesQB · NO324+0.3561
2 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT493+0.2758
3 Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE510+0.2658
4 Baker MayfieldQB · TB430+0.2557
5 Josh AllenQB · BUF538+0.2561
6 Patrick MahomesQB · KC490+0.2556
7 Kirk CousinsQB · LV500+0.2258
8 Tom BradyQB · TB554+0.2255
9 Matt RyanQB · IND589+0.1854
10 Derek CarrQB · NO473+0.1755
11 Kyler MurrayQB · MIN492+0.1656
12 Russell WilsonQB · NYG538+0.1553
13 Ben RoethlisbergerQB · PIT525+0.1553
14 Mitchell TrubiskyQB · TEN273+0.1559
15 Ryan TannehillQB · TEN429+0.1456
16 Justin HerbertQB · LAC522+0.1255
17 Teddy BridgewaterQB · TB468+0.1253
18 Lamar JacksonQB · BAL327+0.1052
19 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR499+0.0953
20 Philip RiversQB · IND496+0.0553
21 Cam NewtonQB · CAR336+0.0552
22 Drew LockQB · SEA385+0.0448
23 Jared GoffQB · DET476+0.0358
24 Nick MullensQB · JAX288+0.0253
25 Daniel JonesQB · IND415−0.0449
26 Andy DaltonQB · PHI303−0.0648
27 Gardner Minshew IIQB · ARI277−0.0653
28 Sam DarnoldQB · SEA331−0.1447
29 Joe BurrowQB · CIN355−0.1550
30 Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL268−0.1849
31 Nick FolesQB · IND263−0.1950
32 Carson WentzQB · MIN387−0.3447