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Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season. How it is computed

In 2025, the New England Patriots ran the most efficient offense (+0.13 EPA a play) and the Cleveland Browns the least (−0.25); the Seattle Seahawks allowed the fewest on defense (−0.18) and the Dallas Cowboys the most (+0.16). Top passer by EPA a play: Drake Maye (NE), +0.26 over 541 plays. Top rusher by EPA a play: Kyren Williams (LAR), +0.12 over 256 plays. Top receiver by EPA a play: George Pickens (DAL), +0.73 over 133 plays.

Leaderboards

Our model: fitted on 2020 season, 2021 season, 2022 season, 2023 season, 2024 season, 2025 season; graded on 2025 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.50 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.81).

Teams

Teams
OffenseDefense
NE+0.13, 1st in the league51+0.23, 1st in the league0.00, 18th in the league−0.08, 8th in the league48−0.14, 9th in the league0.00, 19th in the league
DAL+0.12, 2nd in the league51+0.17, 2nd in the league+0.04, 7th in the league+0.16, 32nd in the league53+0.22, 32nd in the league+0.09, 30th in the league
LAR+0.12, 3rd in the league54+0.16, 3rd in the league+0.05, 5th in the league−0.07, 10th in the league47−0.10, 11th in the league−0.03, 12th in the league
BUF+0.11, 4th in the league51+0.12, 5th in the league+0.09, 1st in the league−0.02, 14th in the league48−0.19, 4th in the league+0.17, 32nd in the league
IND+0.09, 5th in the league51+0.10, 7th in the league+0.07, 4th in the league+0.02, 20th in the league50+0.02, 21st in the league+0.01, 22nd in the league
GB+0.07, 6th in the league51+0.15, 4th in the league0.00, 19th in the league+0.04, 23rd in the league49+0.07, 23rd in the league0.00, 16th in the league
BAL+0.05, 7th in the league49+0.03, 12th in the league+0.07, 3rd in the league+0.03, 22nd in the league49+0.08, 26th in the league−0.05, 6th in the league
DET+0.05, 8th in the league49+0.10, 6th in the league−0.02, 23rd in the league+0.01, 17th in the league47+0.01, 20th in the league0.00, 20th in the league
CHI+0.03, 9th in the league50+0.04, 11th in the league+0.01, 15th in the league+0.01, 18th in the league51−0.03, 13th in the league+0.05, 27th in the league
JAX+0.02, 10th in the league48+0.04, 10th in the league−0.01, 22nd in the league−0.13, 3rd in the league46−0.17, 5th in the league−0.05, 7th in the league
SF+0.02, 11th in the league51+0.10, 8th in the league−0.08, 29th in the league0.00, 16th in the league51+0.01, 19th in the league0.00, 21st in the league
SEA+0.01, 12th in the league49+0.07, 9th in the league−0.04, 26th in the league−0.18, 1st in the league43−0.23, 2nd in the league−0.09, 2nd in the league
DEN+0.01, 13th in the league47+0.02, 15th in the league+0.01, 17th in the league−0.11, 5th in the league43−0.16, 8th in the league−0.03, 9th in the league
CIN+0.01, 14th in the league49−0.01, 17th in the league+0.05, 6th in the league+0.06, 27th in the league50+0.07, 22nd in the league+0.06, 29th in the league
PHI+0.01, 15th in the league47+0.03, 13th in the league−0.01, 20th in the league−0.10, 7th in the league47−0.21, 3rd in the league+0.03, 23rd in the league
KC0.00, 16th in the league48−0.01, 16th in the league+0.02, 10th in the league−0.03, 12th in the league46+0.01, 18th in the league−0.08, 3rd in the league
WSH−0.01, 17th in the league49−0.10, 26th in the league+0.09, 2nd in the league+0.07, 29th in the league50+0.14, 29th in the league0.00, 17th in the league
PIT−0.01, 18th in the league48−0.02, 18th in the league+0.01, 16th in the league+0.01, 19th in the league48−0.01, 16th in the league+0.03, 24th in the league
LAC−0.02, 19th in the league48−0.07, 22nd in the league+0.04, 8th in the league−0.08, 9th in the league46−0.11, 10th in the league−0.04, 8th in the league
NYG−0.02, 20th in the league48−0.06, 21st in the league+0.01, 14th in the league+0.04, 25th in the league490.00, 17th in the league+0.10, 31st in the league
HOU−0.03, 21st in the league45+0.02, 14th in the league−0.09, 30th in the league−0.16, 2nd in the league42−0.25, 1st in the league−0.03, 10th in the league
MIA−0.03, 22nd in the league46−0.08, 24th in the league+0.03, 9th in the league+0.07, 28th in the league52+0.08, 25th in the league+0.06, 28th in the league
ATL−0.03, 23rd in the league48−0.05, 20th in the league−0.01, 21st in the league−0.02, 13th in the league49−0.07, 12th in the league+0.04, 25th in the league
TB−0.04, 24th in the league47−0.09, 25th in the league+0.02, 13th in the league−0.01, 15th in the league48−0.01, 14th in the league−0.01, 14th in the league
ARI−0.05, 25th in the league47−0.05, 19th in the league−0.06, 28th in the league+0.08, 30th in the league51+0.14, 30th in the league0.00, 18th in the league
CAR−0.05, 26th in the league49−0.07, 23rd in the league−0.03, 25th in the league+0.04, 24th in the league47+0.09, 27th in the league−0.01, 15th in the league
NO−0.10, 27th in the league46−0.13, 27th in the league−0.05, 27th in the league−0.05, 11th in the league47−0.01, 15th in the league−0.09, 1st in the league
MIN−0.11, 28th in the league47−0.20, 28th in the league+0.02, 11th in the league−0.11, 6th in the league46−0.17, 6th in the league−0.05, 5th in the league
NYJ−0.14, 29th in the league46−0.27, 30th in the league+0.02, 12th in the league+0.10, 31st in the league49+0.16, 31st in the league+0.04, 26th in the league
TEN−0.20, 30th in the league42−0.30, 31st in the league−0.03, 24th in the league+0.06, 26th in the league49+0.13, 28th in the league−0.03, 11th in the league
LV−0.23, 31st in the league43−0.26, 29th in the league−0.20, 32nd in the league+0.03, 21st in the league49+0.07, 24th in the league−0.02, 13th in the league
CLE−0.25, 32nd in the league39−0.35, 32nd in the league−0.11, 31st in the league−0.12, 4th in the league43−0.16, 7th in the league−0.07, 4th in the league

Players

At least 255 dropbacks

Passing
#
1 Drake MayeQB · NE541+0.2658
2 Dak PrescottQB · DAL625+0.1957
3 Daniel JonesQB · IND402+0.1757
4 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR623+0.1657
5 Jordan LoveQB · GB456+0.1655
6 Jared GoffQB · DET612+0.1153
7 Mac JonesQB · SF302+0.1057
8 Josh AllenQB · BUF499+0.1052
9 Joe BurrowQB · CIN273+0.0954
10 Brock PurdyQB · SF293+0.0956
11 Sam DarnoldQB · SEA501+0.0955
12 Patrick MahomesQB · KC541+0.0852
13 C.J. StroudQB · HOU449+0.0749
14 Lamar JacksonQB · BAL332+0.0651
15 Jalen HurtsQB · PHI488+0.0550
16 Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX594+0.0452
17 Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI587+0.0447
18 Bo NixQB · DEN637+0.0350
19 Justin HerbertQB · LAC5630.0051
20 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT521−0.0149
21 Kirk CousinsQB · MIN277−0.0450
22 Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL416−0.0549
23 Bryce YoungQB · CAR499−0.0651
24 Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL292−0.0650
25 Baker MayfieldQB · TB567−0.0749
26 Jacoby BrissettQB · BAL523−0.0750
27 Jaxson DartQB · NYG371−0.0849
28 Tyler ShoughQB · NO352−0.1048
29 Spencer RattlerQB · NO275−0.1851
30 Joe FlaccoQB · CIN436−0.1848
31 J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG266−0.2048
32 Geno SmithQB · NYJ499−0.2148
33 Cam WardQB · TEN589−0.2644