Skip to content
Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season.

Our model: fitted on 2024–25 season, 2025–26 season, 2026–27 season; graded on 2025–26 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.48 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).

Teams

Teams
TeamOffenseDefense
EPA/playSuccessPassRunEPA/playSuccessPassRun
NE+0.15, 1st in the league50+0.30, 1st in the league−0.03, 11th in the league−0.06, 9th in the league47−0.05, 6th in the league−0.07, 18th in the league
LAR+0.14, 2nd in the league53+0.26, 2nd in the league−0.02, 10th in the league−0.06, 8th in the league46−0.04, 9th in the league−0.10, 8th in the league
DAL+0.13, 3rd in the league49+0.22, 7th in the league+0.02, 3rd in the league+0.20, 32nd in the league51+0.29, 32nd in the league+0.07, 31st in the league
IND+0.12, 4th in the league49+0.24, 4th in the league−0.02, 8th in the league+0.03, 19th in the league48+0.11, 19th in the league−0.09, 14th in the league
BUF+0.11, 5th in the league51+0.18, 8th in the league+0.04, 1st in the league+0.02, 16th in the league46−0.05, 8th in the league+0.09, 32nd in the league
GB+0.09, 6th in the league50+0.23, 6th in the league−0.06, 18th in the league+0.05, 22nd in the league47+0.13, 21st in the league−0.05, 22nd in the league
DET+0.09, 7th in the league48+0.18, 9th in the league−0.05, 15th in the league+0.05, 20th in the league45+0.13, 20th in the league−0.06, 20th in the league
BAL+0.06, 8th in the league47+0.09, 15th in the league+0.03, 2nd in the league+0.05, 21st in the league47+0.14, 23rd in the league−0.08, 16th in the league
SF+0.06, 9th in the league50+0.24, 3rd in the league−0.16, 31st in the league+0.02, 17th in the league51+0.09, 16th in the league−0.08, 15th in the league
CHI+0.05, 10th in the league48+0.11, 11th in the league−0.02, 6th in the league+0.02, 18th in the league49+0.13, 22nd in the league−0.12, 7th in the league
JAX+0.04, 11th in the league48+0.16, 10th in the league−0.10, 25th in the league−0.11, 3rd in the league44−0.05, 7th in the league−0.21, 1st in the league
DEN+0.04, 12th in the league46+0.10, 14th in the league−0.05, 14th in the league−0.07, 7th in the league41−0.06, 4th in the league−0.09, 10th in the league
SEA+0.04, 13th in the league48+0.24, 5th in the league−0.15, 30th in the league−0.14, 1st in the league42−0.13, 1st in the league−0.17, 2nd in the league
CIN+0.04, 14th in the league48+0.10, 13th in the league−0.08, 20th in the league+0.10, 30th in the league50+0.17, 25th in the league+0.02, 27th in the league
KC+0.03, 15th in the league48+0.08, 17th in the league−0.05, 13th in the league−0.01, 12th in the league45+0.10, 17th in the league−0.14, 6th in the league
PIT+0.02, 16th in the league45+0.11, 12th in the league−0.10, 24th in the league+0.01, 15th in the league46+0.09, 15th in the league−0.09, 11th in the league
PHI+0.02, 17th in the league46+0.08, 16th in the league−0.05, 16th in the league−0.08, 4th in the league45−0.09, 3rd in the league−0.07, 19th in the league
LAC+0.02, 18th in the league46+0.04, 22nd in the league−0.02, 5th in the league−0.04, 10th in the league45+0.01, 11th in the league−0.09, 12th in the league
WSH+0.02, 19th in the league47+0.05, 19th in the league−0.02, 7th in the league+0.09, 27th in the league49+0.18, 27th in the league−0.02, 26th in the league
MIA+0.01, 20th in the league45+0.05, 20th in the league−0.04, 12th in the league+0.09, 26th in the league50+0.14, 24th in the league+0.02, 28th in the league
NYG0.00, 21st in the league46+0.02, 24th in the league−0.02, 9th in the league+0.07, 24th in the league49+0.08, 14th in the league+0.05, 30th in the league
HOU−0.01, 22nd in the league43+0.06, 18th in the league−0.09, 23rd in the league−0.13, 2nd in the league41−0.11, 2nd in the league−0.15, 4th in the league
TB−0.01, 23rd in the league46−0.02, 26th in the league0.00, 4th in the league+0.01, 13th in the league46+0.06, 13th in the league−0.08, 17th in the league
ATL−0.02, 24th in the league46+0.04, 21st in the league−0.09, 21st in the league+0.01, 14th in the league47+0.03, 12th in the league−0.02, 25th in the league
ARI−0.03, 25th in the league46+0.01, 25th in the league−0.11, 27th in the league+0.10, 29th in the league50+0.21, 31st in the league−0.04, 23rd in the league
CAR−0.04, 26th in the league46+0.03, 23rd in the league−0.13, 28th in the league+0.08, 25th in the league46+0.20, 29th in the league−0.05, 21st in the league
MIN−0.07, 27th in the league45−0.07, 27th in the league−0.08, 19th in the league−0.07, 6th in the league44−0.05, 5th in the league−0.09, 9th in the league
NO−0.10, 28th in the league45−0.09, 29th in the league−0.10, 26th in the league−0.03, 11th in the league44+0.10, 18th in the league−0.16, 3rd in the league
NYJ−0.12, 29th in the league44−0.17, 30th in the league−0.05, 17th in the league+0.12, 31st in the league48+0.21, 30th in the league+0.02, 29th in the league
TEN−0.15, 30th in the league40−0.19, 31st in the league−0.09, 22nd in the league+0.09, 28th in the league48+0.19, 28th in the league−0.04, 24th in the league
LV−0.19, 31st in the league42−0.09, 28th in the league−0.33, 32nd in the league+0.05, 23rd in the league48+0.18, 26th in the league−0.09, 13th in the league
CLE−0.20, 32nd in the league38−0.25, 32nd in the league−0.14, 29th in the league−0.08, 5th in the league42−0.01, 10th in the league−0.15, 5th in the league

Players

At least 250 dropbacks

Passing
#PlayerPlaysEPA/playSuccess
1 Drake MayeQB · NE530+0.3256
2 Daniel JonesQB · IND391+0.3055
3 Brock PurdyQB · SF281+0.2656
4 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR613+0.2656
5 Sam DarnoldQB · SEA483+0.2454
6 Jordan LoveQB · GB448+0.2453
7 Mac JonesQB · SF294+0.2355
8 Dak PrescottQB · DAL614+0.2354
9 Jared GoffQB · DET601+0.1952
10 Joe BurrowQB · CIN268+0.1854
11 Patrick MahomesQB · KC529+0.1752
12 Josh AllenQB · BUF488+0.1652
13 Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX580+0.1552
14 Lamar JacksonQB · BAL323+0.1248
15 C.J. StroudQB · HOU442+0.1147
16 Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI579+0.1046
17 Bo NixQB · DEN625+0.1048
18 Jalen HurtsQB · PHI482+0.1049
19 Justin HerbertQB · LAC549+0.0948
20 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT513+0.0946
21 Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL400+0.0948
22 Kirk CousinsQB · LV272+0.0548
23 Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL287+0.0447
24 Bryce YoungQB · CAR486+0.0248
25 J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG252+0.0144
26 Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI5110.0049
27 Baker MayfieldQB · TB5530.0047
28 Jaxson DartQB · NYG365−0.0347
29 Geno SmithQB · NYJ481−0.0448
30 Tyler ShoughQB · NO345−0.0746
31 Joe FlaccoQB · CIN423−0.0946
32 Spencer RattlerQB · NO269−0.1449
33 Cam WardQB · TEN576−0.1641