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Keel Stats

Game projections

Before every game: the home side's expected margin and win probability, from the players available (each one's Keel Impact before the season, moved toward what his box score says as the season goes, × his recent minutes), how that compares with the team's usual roster, each team's net rating so far and rest. Here is how it has done.

From November 2026 the win chance shown blends the model's with the sportsbooks' (their margin removed) while the model learns; the record grades the chance as it was shown, and earlier games show the model alone.

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Winners picked
67.5%
1,319 games
Picking the home team
54.7%
Log loss. Lower is better; 0.693 is a coin flip
0.604
Brier score. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip
0.207
Margin error. Average miss on the final margin, in points
10.9

1,319 of these are replays with a fit on another season (the model never saw them); 0 were made live before tip-off.

Graded on NaN-26 with a fit on NaN-24 only: 68.3% winners picked, log loss 0.592 — against 0.607 with the season's net rating alone and 0.688 for home court alone.

Is it honest?

When the favourite was given about 70 %, did it win about 70 % of the time? On the diagonal is honest.

50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%100%100%Projected chance of the favourite →↑ How often it won

Calibration by bin
Favourite's chanceProjectedWonGames
50%–55%53%52%231
55%–60%57%59%253
60%–65%62%66%212
65%–70%67%69%175
70%–75%72%75%131
75%–80%77%82%123
80%–85%82%83%76
85%–90%87%85%54
90%–95%92%83%46
95%–100%96%83%18

Month by month

Accuracy by month
MonthGamesWinnersLog loss
October 20235461.1%0.659
November 202321966.2%0.620
December 202320870.7%0.571
January 202423167.5%0.618
February 202417465.5%0.593
March 202423067.4%0.582
April 202415772.0%0.625
May 20244156.1%0.644
June 2024580.0%0.487

Latest results

The latest games with their projection and result
Final
DAL @ BOSBOS 72%88–106Called
BOS @ DALBOS 66%84–122Missed
BOS @ DALBOS 67%106–99Called
DAL @ BOSBOS 75%98–105Called
DAL @ BOSBOS 72%89–107Called
DAL @ MINMIN 60%124–103Missed
MIN @ DALDAL 52%105–100Missed
BOS @ INDBOS 70%105–102Called
MIN @ DALDAL 50%107–116Called
BOS @ INDBOS 65%114–111Called
DAL @ MINMIN 61%109–108Missed
IND @ BOSBOS 74%110–126Called
DAL @ MINMIN 60%108–105Missed
IND @ BOSBOS 75%128–133Called
MIN @ DENDEN 53%98–90Missed
IND @ NYKNYK 54%130–109Missed
OKC @ DALOKC 56%116–117Missed
NYK @ INDIND 56%103–116Called
DEN @ MINMIN 53%70–115Called
DAL @ OKCOKC 66%104–92Missed
CLE @ BOSBOS 78%98–113Called
MIN @ DENDEN 56%97–112Called
IND @ NYKNYK 53%91–121Called
OKC @ DALOKC 54%100–96Called
BOS @ CLEBOS 64%109–102Called
DEN @ MINMIN 56%115–107Missed
NYK @ INDIND 55%89–121Called
BOS @ CLEBOS 63%106–93Called
OKC @ DALOKC 55%101–105Missed
DEN @ MINMIN 57%117–90Missed