Skip to content
Keel Stats

Game projections

Before every game: the home side's expected margin and win probability, from the players available (each one's Keel Impact before the season, moved toward what his box score says as the season goes, × his recent minutes), how that compares with the team's usual roster, each team's net rating so far and rest. Here is how it has done.

From November 2026 the win chance shown blends the model's with the sportsbooks' (their margin removed) while the model learns; the record grades the chance as it was shown, and earlier games show the model alone.

Something looks off? Tell us

Next up

Winners picked
67.6%
1,321 games
Picking the home team
54.5%
Log loss. Lower is better; 0.693 is a coin flip
0.596
Brier score. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip
0.205
Margin error. Average miss on the final margin, in points
10.9

1,321 of these are replays with a fit on another season (the model never saw them); 0 were made live before tip-off.

Graded on NaN-26 with a fit on NaN-24 only: 68.3% winners picked, log loss 0.592 — against 0.607 with the season's net rating alone and 0.688 for home court alone.

Is it honest?

When the favourite was given about 70 %, did it win about 70 % of the time? On the diagonal is honest.

50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%100%100%Projected chance of the favourite →↑ How often it won

Calibration by bin
Favourite's chanceProjectedWonGames
50%–55%53%53%210
55%–60%57%56%229
60%–65%62%66%202
65%–70%68%65%191
70%–75%72%75%162
75%–80%77%77%125
80%–85%82%79%102
85%–90%87%92%61
90%–95%92%97%34
95%–100%96%100%5

Month by month

Accuracy by month
MonthGamesWinnersLog loss
October 20247162.0%0.641
November 202422267.1%0.591
December 202419269.8%0.591
January 202522767.8%0.620
February 202517664.8%0.612
March 202523871.0%0.570
April 202514970.5%0.542
May 20253951.3%0.699
June 2025757.1%0.681

Latest results

The latest games with their projection and result
Final
IND @ OKCOKC 75%91–103Called
OKC @ INDOKC 65%91–108Missed
IND @ OKCOKC 75%109–120Called
OKC @ INDOKC 63%111–104Called
OKC @ INDOKC 63%107–116Missed
IND @ OKCOKC 74%107–123Called
IND @ OKCOKC 75%111–110Missed
NYK @ INDIND 57%108–125Called
IND @ NYKNYK 54%94–111Called
MIN @ OKCOKC 78%94–124Called
NYK @ INDIND 58%121–130Called
OKC @ MINOKC 64%128–126Called
NYK @ INDIND 57%106–100Missed
OKC @ MINOKC 67%101–143Missed
IND @ NYKNYK 55%114–109Missed
MIN @ OKCOKC 75%103–118Called
IND @ NYKNYK 52%138–135Missed
MIN @ OKCOKC 72%88–114Called
DEN @ OKCOKC 70%93–125Called
BOS @ NYKBOS 53%81–119Missed
OKC @ DENOKC 59%107–119Missed
GSW @ MINMIN 64%110–121Called
NYK @ BOSBOS 67%102–127Called
DEN @ OKCOKC 70%105–112Called
IND @ CLECLE 67%114–105Missed
MIN @ GSWGSW 51%117–110Missed
BOS @ NYKBOS 54%113–121Missed
CLE @ INDCLE 56%109–129Missed
OKC @ DENOKC 57%92–87Called
MIN @ GSWGSW 52%102–97Missed