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Keel Stats

Game projections

Before every game: the home side's expected margin and win probability, from the players available (each one's Keel Impact before the season, moved toward what his box score says as the season goes, × his recent minutes), how that compares with the team's usual roster, each team's net rating so far and rest. Here is how it has done.

From November 2026 the win chance shown blends the model's with the sportsbooks' (their margin removed) while the model learns; the record grades the chance as it was shown, and earlier games show the model alone.

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Winners picked
68.4%
1,321 games
Picking the home team
55.5%
Log loss. Lower is better; 0.693 is a coin flip
0.596
Brier score. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip
0.205
Margin error. Average miss on the final margin, in points
11.4

1,321 of these are replays with a fit on another season (the model never saw them); 0 were made live before tip-off.

Graded on NaN-26 with a fit on NaN-24 only: 68.3% winners picked, log loss 0.592 — against 0.607 with the season's net rating alone and 0.688 for home court alone.

Is it honest?

When the favourite was given about 70 %, did it win about 70 % of the time? On the diagonal is honest.

50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%100%100%Projected chance of the favourite →↑ How often it won

Calibration by bin
Favourite's chanceProjectedWonGames
50%–55%52%55%218
55%–60%57%59%244
60%–65%62%69%189
65%–70%68%64%210
70%–75%72%76%126
75%–80%78%79%127
80%–85%82%82%96
85%–90%87%86%76
90%–95%92%96%27
95%–100%97%100%8

Month by month

Accuracy by month
MonthGamesWinnersLog loss
October 20258066.3%0.602
November 202521974.4%0.564
December 202519759.4%0.700
January 202623362.2%0.656
February 202616666.9%0.612
March 202623975.7%0.500
April 202614475.0%0.531
May 20263863.2%0.628
June 2026520.0%0.786

Latest results

The latest games with their projection and result
Final
NYK @ SASSAS 57%94–90Missed
SAS @ NYKNYK 58%106–107Called
SAS @ NYKNYK 60%115–111Missed
NYK @ SASSAS 55%105–104Missed
NYK @ SASSAS 57%105–95Missed
SAS @ OKCOKC 66%111–103Missed
OKC @ SASOKC 55%91–118Missed
SAS @ OKCOKC 67%114–127Called
NYK @ CLECLE 52%130–93Missed
OKC @ SASOKC 55%82–103Missed
NYK @ CLECLE 53%121–108Missed
OKC @ SASOKC 56%123–108Called
CLE @ NYKNYK 57%93–109Called
SAS @ OKCOKC 68%113–122Called
CLE @ NYKNYK 57%104–115Called
SAS @ OKCOKC 70%122–115Missed
CLE @ DETDET 58%125–94Missed
SAS @ MINSAS 57%139–109Called
DET @ CLECLE 57%115–94Missed
CLE @ DETDET 57%117–113Missed
MIN @ SASSAS 67%97–126Called
OKC @ LALOKC 68%115–110Called
DET @ CLECLE 57%103–112Called
SAS @ MINSAS 54%109–114Missed
NYK @ PHINYK 55%144–114Called
OKC @ LALOKC 68%131–108Called
DET @ CLECLE 57%109–116Called
SAS @ MINSAS 56%115–108Called
NYK @ PHINYK 57%108–94Called
LAL @ OKCOKC 80%107–125Called