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Keel Stats

Game projections

Before every game: the home side's expected margin and win probability, from the players available (each one's Keel Impact before the season, moved toward what his box score says as the season goes, × his recent minutes), how that compares with the team's usual roster, each team's net rating so far and rest. Here is how it has done.

From November 2026 the win chance shown blends the model's with the sportsbooks' (their margin removed) while the model learns; the record grades the chance as it was shown, and earlier games show the model alone.

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Winners picked
71.8%
170 games
Picking the home team
50.6%
Log loss. Lower is better; 0.693 is a coin flip
0.571
Brier score. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip
0.194
Margin error. Average miss on the final margin, in points
11.4

0 of these are replays with a fit on another season (the model never saw them); 170 were made live before tip-off.

Graded on NaN-26 with a fit on NaN-24 only: 68.3% winners picked, log loss 0.592 — against 0.607 with the season's net rating alone and 0.688 for home court alone.

Is it honest?

When the favourite was given about 70 %, did it win about 70 % of the time? On the diagonal is honest.

50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%100%100%Projected chance of the favourite →↑ How often it won

Calibration by bin
Favourite's chanceProjectedWonGames
50%–55%52%54%28
55%–60%58%76%38
60%–65%62%62%26
65%–70%68%80%20
70%–75%72%76%25
75%–80%78%77%13
80%–85%82%92%13
85%–90%87%100%6
90%–95%92%100%1

Month by month

Accuracy by month
MonthGamesWinnersLog loss
October 20268868.2%0.598
November 20268275.6%0.541

Latest results

The latest games with their projection and result
Final
OKC @ PORPOR 60%108–118Called
GSW @ HOUHOU 68%108–115Called
ORL @ UTAORL 61%123–108Called
BKN @ NOPNOP 55%145–111Missed
LAL @ MILLAL 87%123–112Called
DEN @ MEMDEN 56%123–118Called
SAS @ CHISAS 89%124–119Called
BOS @ TORBOS 65%98–93Called
CLE @ NYKNYK 62%115–107Missed
WAS @ INDIND 57%101–114Called
OKC @ PORPOR 50%103–123Called
ORL @ SACORL 62%107–100Called
MIA @ UTAMIA 73%115–109Called
LAC @ PHXPHX 58%110–133Called
BOS @ PHIBOS 55%123–101Called
MIL @ NYKNYK 87%85–117Called
NOP @ GSWGSW 81%87–138Called
SAS @ PHXSAS 73%122–96Called
DEN @ HOUHOU 65%100–110Called
IND @ DALDAL 63%122–125Called
MEM @ TORMEM 55%118–102Called
WAS @ DETDET 79%111–122Called
CLE @ CHACLE 73%112–124Missed
LAL @ ATLATL 57%124–114Missed
MIA @ SACMIA 79%114–108Called
NOP @ LACNOP 52%123–139Missed
BOS @ MILBOS 84%117–97Called
BKN @ DALDAL 72%93–130Called
UTA @ MINMIN 85%100–115Called
LAL @ DETDET 71%121–116Missed