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NBANew Orleans Pelicans season preview

Pelicans return 85% of their minutes after a 26-56 season

New Orleans brings back most of a core that missed games all last year, and Dejounte Murray is day-to-day with a toe issue before Wednesday's opener.

  • Went 26-56 last season and finished 11th in the West
  • 85% of last season's minutes are back
  • Our projection: 32 wins

2 min read How this story was written

Keel Stats team card: New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans, 26-56 last season, bring back 85% of their minutes and open Wednesday, October 21, at home against the Indiana Pacers, with the year hinging on a core that finally has to stay healthy.

New Orleans finished 11th in the Western Conference and missed the playoffs. Its net rating was -4.4, and it went 13-17 over its last 30 games.

The record needs context. With Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey and Jeremiah Fears all playing, New Orleans went 20-41 in 61 games, so a full main three did not fix it. Without one of them it went 6-15 in 21.

Several core players missed 10 or more games last season, and Dejounte Murray played 14. In those games he scored 16.7 points with 6.4 assists and graded 1.58 on our impact rating, measured in points per 100 possessions over an average player.

Murray is day-to-day with a toe issue. The report says he looked good in the preseason opener on Oct. 7, then sat out the final three exhibition games, and it lists his return as Wednesday, October 21, the night of the opener.

Murphy scored 21.5 points in 35.4 minutes over 66 games and graded 1.52. Bey added 17.7 points in 72 games at 1.03. Both graded above average, and both sit in the main three the team counts on most.

Zion Williamson scored 21 points in 62 games and graded 1.15. Herbert Jones scored only 8.9 points in 56 games, yet graded 1.44, so his minutes helped the team without the scoring.

Fears played all 82 games and averaged 14.3 points and 3.4 assists in 25.7 minutes, but he graded -2.23, well below average.

Derik Queen played 81 games at 11.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 25 minutes, and graded -1.67. Both played heavy minutes for a team with a -4.4 net rating, so their improvement matters more than any arrival.

Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic, the other big men, graded above average in limited minutes. Missi graded 0.8 in 19.6 minutes with 5.8 rebounds, and Matkovic 1.06 in 14.7.

Bennedict Mathurin arrives from the LA Clippers after splitting last season between the Indiana Pacers and the Clippers. He scored 17.6 points in 54 games but graded -1.21.

Julian Reese comes from the Washington Wizards, where he averaged 10.5 rebounds in 13 games. Trendon Watford arrives from the Philadelphia 76ers and AJ Johnson from the Dallas Mavericks, after splitting last season between the Wizards and Dallas. They graded -2.54 and -4.11.

Both rookies are on two-way contracts: Jaron Pierre Jr., the 58th pick out of SMU, and Malik Dia, undrafted out of Ole Miss.

Kevon Looney (Los Angeles Lakers), Micah Peavy (Memphis Grizzlies) and Jordan Hawkins (Chicago Bulls) leave. Each played between 13.5 and 14.9 minutes a game, and all three graded below average; Hawkins graded -3.05.

Jose Alvarado went to the New York Knicks in February, after 41 games and a 1.12 grade.

Our roster-strength ranking puts New Orleans 25th among 30 teams, and our projection is 32 wins with a net rating of -3.9. Tipoff Wednesday is at 8:00 PM ET.

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